MRNA Trade on Aug 12, 2020 09:30 from AriTradingSim: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Tracking:
Inst Own - via 10%
Float - by 10 million
Short % - by 5%
AvgVol - by million

Playbook name: Opening Drive Short

Date: 08/13/20
Ticker: MRNA
Vol: 50.47m
Avg Vol: 26.6m
RVOL: 2
ATR: 5.71
Short Int: 8%

BIG PICTURE
SPY gapping up after prior day's selloff looking very bullish to continue with long term uptrend. Very close to all time highs prior to Covid-19 outbreak.

INTRADAY FUNDAMENTALS
Stock gapping up 10% on news that it now has a deal with the U.S. Government to provide 100 million doses of it's Covid-19 vaccine for up to $1.53 Billion.

LONG TERM TECHNICALS
Stock gapping up breaking 11 day downtrend and above the most recent resistance level over the past two days at 75. Longer term support at 70 and 71. Longer term resistance at 80 and 84.

INTRADAY TECHNICALS
Stock hit a pre-market high 78.35 then had a very wide channel between 74 and 78. Stock was trading below pre-market VWAP and had just sold down cleanly to 74, then 20 minutes before the opening bell was running up to 76.

I was looking for an opening drive long opportunity here seeing the strength right before the bell up to the pre-market high.

READING THE TAPE
When the opening bell rang the first move was slightly up and there was a held offer at 75.75 that wouldn't break. Bids started getting hit aggressively down to 75.00 where I identified a held bid on the tape. I was waiting to see what happened here and was going to get long if it held and short if it broke. As I'm typing this out it really doesn't seem like I am able to get the significance across. The held bid was enormous. 1.71 million shares were sold on this candle, the majority of which felt like were at 75 then more in the low 74's.

In many of my opening drive trades I use the chart and pre-market VWAP to help determine direction before the bell, but this was one of the first times where I used the tape to confirm entry. I am likely going to do this in the future in order to increase my win rate on these trades. Unfortunately I do not have a recording of this.

MANAGING THE TRADE
These trades are very fast so I have a lot of entries and exits based on the price action. Initial entry when 75 broke and took of half when 74 was holding. Entered large when 74 dropped. Took some off into a down move near 73, then more when we broke through 73 and I saw heavy buying on the offer on the tape as a shift in momentum. Got flat as the stock broke the initial downward push trend as is standard for me. Hit it again as it was rolling over and added as we hit a new low. Covered into large down move and then got flat again after we capitulated at 71 back above 71.50.

I stopped thinking about an opening drive at this point since the stock approached longer term support levels that I had identified at 71 and 70. Capitulating off of 71 like that had me thinking of a fast bounce up to VWAP and/or 72.50 and a re-short play opportunity that usually follows drives like this.

TRADE REVIEW
Overall a good opening drive play. I love that I used the tape to determine this play because I had a long bias on the stock when the market opened. Once I saw that enormous bid at 75 drop I knew everything had changed. I think that I could have done better here on my exits. The chart doesn't really reflect it but there were small pauses on the tape every .50 cent interval which is why I have covers at like 73.28 73.40, etc. I could have had a little more patience to cover but I have had a bad habit in the past of not taking profits on these drives and letting them bounce back up ruining the trade. I was really trying to avoid that here so I scalped my way down.