NQU0 Trade on Sep 10, 2020 15:55 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Big Picture
Markets opened higher but sellers took control at the open and throughout the cash equites session. Focusing more on price action in the recent trades because new fundamentals & catalyst carry less weight at the moment unless something notable which accompanies a strong directional move in markets. Seems markets are mostly technically driven for the time being. Seeing weakness after the open. Pre-market and overnight buyers either under water or stopped out. There are some initial bounce leaders currently in price discovery for a lower high but indexes mostly back at bounce support low. More risk to the downside if buyers unable to regain control at that level.

Trade Plan
Focusing more on futures product here on the live account. Weekly option trade to continue the scalping strategy as taking trades move to move as the markets still in downside price discovery. Also testing a paper position buying puts to hedge longer-term portfolios to see how that results if sellers take it to new lows in the next couple trading days.

Intraday Fundamentals/Metrics

Options Statistics

SI 5.456
RVOL 1.49
AVOL 587.9K
ATR 296.02
IV 37.85%
IV Percentile 42%
P/C Ratio 1.18
VS 0.934
FS 0.957
VWAP 11364.849

Options Position Metrics

OI 430
Vol 253
Delta .02
Theta -1.90
Vega .39

Technical Analysis
Sellers taking control at 11600 and noting the 2 rejections the past week. Shorter-term inflection 11400. Mid-term inflection 11850. 11000 buyers initial bounce support also mid-term inflection. 10500 notable support level.

Market Breadth Analysis

TICK / ADD / VWAP / SPY
IWM / XLF / SMH / QQQ
GLD / TLT / VXX / SPY

Noting -1000 ticks intraday and into close. ADD + VWAP + SPY + selected/watched indexes lower to confirm. Selected additional assets & fixed income GLD + TLT + volatility VXX compared to market + SPY to measure/gauge initial macro movements.

Tape Reading
Still doing more research here. Looking at largest orders for the trading day and which series traded ie. weekly or monthly. Seeing if I can get any usable insight data on positions further out. Also still keeping in mind next weeks monthly options expiry. Knowing the higher volume traded call positions from the last month.

Trade Review

Overnight futures markets headed higher but was met with sellers taking over as cash equites markets opened for the final day of the week. I had downside alerts for portfolio positions after the first opening hour. Will have to review those this weekend. Specifically this trade became a trade to hold until expiration after the opening bell sell off. It did bounce towards the end of the day, so this will be notable going into next week. Japan, Europe, & the US will cover monetary policy and rates. Key week globally as the US heads into elections in November. Reported higher cases of infections in France, Italy, & India with a lesser fatality numbers. JPM is set to have their senior management teams and traders all come back to work in full attendance 09/21. It is also quadruple witching Friday next week. So as far as options and price action goes it will be volatile as liquidity is lesser.

Adding a chart for future research on volatility of different areas of the market. NVX which is Nasdaq 100 volatility is relatively stronger compared to peers. Thesis of it coming down after this week as the indexes finds support and after key events for the week. On the flip side of things we tend to see tech lead price action in the indexes. Lower probability leading the indexes here to higher volatility though.

thinkBack Trade Alternate Analysis

Using the index NDX vs future contract NQ. The capital requirements will be different so placing a spread to cover risk and decrease capital requirements w/ defined risk. Something to look into in the future but will have to review it in realtime.