Shared by
pstark89
Shorted into the bear flag. Covered half on the drop. Covered the balance when it traded back up.
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-02-11 12:56:50 | SM | sell | $45.430 | short |
| 2015-02-11 13:12:05 | SM | buy | $45.000 | short |
| 2015-02-11 13:22:02 | SM | buy | $44.780 | short |
| 2015-02-11 13:26:15 | SM | buy | $45.190 | 0 |
Comments
pstark89
You have a great eye. The only part I didn't understand is when you said if you look farther left all that support is too jumbled. What do you mean by that? Couldn't it have dropped closer to $44 and then $43 perhaps?
im2p
Awesome question. Look at the daily chart. You see where the stock goes straight down? Then it bases at the bottom then goes up flags and fails and then after the drop they stacked on top of each other and then fails and it's prior support and then it stacked on each other again. Then breaksout, hits prior resistance from the flag then fails and later gaps into resistance before continuing higher. Now look at the intraday. See how the intraday reacts differently with the candlesticks are stack on each other. Look at 10 - 11. a lot of buying and selling. So the stocks don't move has free when there are long range candles or candles when there is one and then another one on top of that and then another on top of that. Pull up old charts.. you'll see it repeat time and time again. But remember it's not always that way. Gaps and the market and can change that in a heart beat.
Yes, it could have gone lower... nothing about this game is 100%. But we play the odds. And the odds say that when it hits prior support it's going to react. Not only that it took out almost 3 1/2 hours of gains in 2. Also, it's at a reversal time around 1 o'clock. So the odds are in the favor that it's going to bounce there and need time to set up before it can move further if it was going to do that but it gave more indication it was heading upwards after the bounce.
But I read your google post about your frustration. I've been there. But the most frustrating part is not know the "why" it didn't work. Not only that, but the "why" did it work. Even on the days I lose it doesn't bother me as much especially if my idea for entering the trade is sound. Because if I saw the same play or setup again, I would play it.. because I know next time it could work.
You make so many good points and I really appreciate everything you are saying. What is your name?
Chris... Here's my email im2p.inc@gmail.com. If you ever have any questions just shoot me an email.
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Awesome trade, my brotha! The stock hits resistance from the prior day, take a dive (look at the 1 min to get a good view). Pulls back to a 50% retracement, can't hold. You buy after the confirmation and then, you see those 5 green candles to the left... they took out all your support and that's why those red candles move so easily to the first part of support at 44.73. Has another 40/50 retracement, into the 9ma and then flushes to the second support level at 44.30. But if you look farther left all that support is too jumbled for it to sustain any further dive.. so it heads back to the place of least resistance... Up.