SPCE Trade on Sep 28, 2020 15:51 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Big Picture
Overnight markets trading higher with follow through at cash equites open. HTF buying support and continuation from Friday. PMI's report globally this week. With Job's report on Friday. Worth mentioning the US presidential debates will be held tomorrow. SMH was looking like a lead today, along with IWM and IWC a reversal from lows all on a HTF. ES and NQ were back in the HTF range for the month. VIX continuing to drop off. DXY pull back from last weeks HTF breakout.

Trade Plan
SPCE has been in a HTF range since end of Q1. There was a notable rating from BofA Securities (Merrill Lynch) with a price target of 35. Prior days close was 16.43. Was mentioned in the meeting that this is one of the largest banks with many connected brokerages and clients.

Placed this trade going through all my variables but less in size to bring in my strike and risk averse with the recent market upward extension. Planning to hold this into expiration depended on daily developments. Also wanting to save more buying power for other actionable trades that may come up during the week.

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 4.21
AVOL 12.96M
ATR 1.24
Short Float 17.9%
Inst Own 21.99%
Market Cap 3.73B
Shs Float 168.10M

Options Statistics

SI 3.335
IV 112.15%
IV Percentile 34%
P/C Ratio 0.33
VWAP 19.655

Noting 44% call buying at ASK or above with 41-60 delta.

Options Position Metrics

OI 1,140
Vol 986
Delta -.04
Theta -.03
Vega 0

Noting the largest Put OI at 16(5,294). Lots of bought Calls OI above 16.

Tape Reading

Noting the large call buy at 22 + large put buy at 16.5

Technical Analysis

ES daily YTD, recent bounce.

SPCE HTF weekly view, recent double bottom higher low, notable expansion in RVOL.

SPCE daily YTD, daily RVOL expansion, range breakout, above anchored vwaps from pivot highs, above 21 ema.

Trade Review

Left the trade on the 2nd day but on the 3rd day sellers took control overnight after the presidential debate but in the early morning the buyers in the market showed up aggressively and broadly. SPCE was showing weakness compared to the overall market and many in play names. This gave me the same intuition effect that I realized with NKLA earlier in the month. Price was rejected at HOD and traded below VWAP. More importantly 20 which was a marked MTF level was breached again. The trade had appreciated 60% of the total possible gain in the option. There was more risk in the trade than reward at this point and the buyers weren't able to hold up and follow through from day one. I grade this downsized B trade with good overall process and execution. I'm still adjusting as the market type develops but willing to execute my edges with risk adjustments in mind. The time will come when to really press into trades.

This was also the last day of the month and quarter. Was motivated to close out another "one good trade" to top it off. Looking forward to the new quarter and prepping as we move into Q3 earnings in two weeks. Will be interesting to see how markets trade the next 2 weeks with current developments and the big banks awaiting to start earnings release.