NQZ0 Trade on Oct 12, 2020 15:39 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets gaping up and following strong into the new week. Earnings season is starting and inflows are positioning bullishly. Big banks to start the week.

Stock selection process today was challenging as I did the rundown. Bullish momentum plays were a main theme with technology in the forefront due the AAPL event tomorrow, ZM conference, & AMZN prime day. This was after the markets had rotated and re-established the longer-term trend. The price action shows mega/large cap tech/growth with big moves today.

I ended up selecting a weekly income play to start the week open to adding in single stock plays as the week progresses. Want to see how market reacts to JPM's earning tomorrow and how it holds this gap and go price movement.

From a supply/demand view I'm seeing buyers aggressively stepping in. Anticipating any pullback to be bought up due to the speed and widespread of the move in NQ. VIX was also notably declining but relatively still elevated. Noting if the market is pricing a near-term future with elections 3 weeks away. Noticed bullish calls months out into the first quarter on AAPL. Sentiment seems to be improving with how the polls are running and vaccine developments. Will adjust plan based on risk and how the next couple days develop.

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.187
AVOL 603.608k
ATR 309.31

Options Statistics

SI 9.874
IV 33.97%
IVP 35%
P/C R 1.401
VWAP 11996.792

Noting higher lower delta put options.

Options Position Metrics

OI 569
Vol 44
Delta -.03
Theta -2.98
Vega .84
Gamma .00

Added Gamma into recorded metrics.

Tape Reading

Order of 38 12200 Calls sold in the cash equities pre-market. 54 12000 Puts sold later on in the day (92k premium).

Technical Analysis

Breakout volume + range expansion on the daily. On the cash equites side there was a gap up and go candle. ATH's is within close proximity but will see how this move is consolidated. Strong move off 11500. Anchored VWAP's held as support and now turning up. Earnings seasons is definitely going to be interesting.

Trade Management

Original plan was to open a smaller position opening into the week for a weekly play and place additional in play single stock names on. Markets started to show some shallow pullback. Adding onto this trade made sense in my playbook comparing other single stock trades in play. I looked at the short call side but I'm thinking more risk to the upside. Scaled another position on Wednesday seeing the trade still working and trying to manage capital efficiently. Currently on 60% buying power with 2 days left in the week. Noting the notional value of the position now is 440k. Will be seeing tomorrow during the cash equites open what are some other options that may come into play or continue to add to this current position into EOW. This is the first time I'm scaling into an options play but made sense given the circumstances and risk management.

Scaled into other position on Thursday seeing the flush below 11850 and buyers stepping in aggressively at 11750. This trade is continuing to work with 1 more day until expiry. RTY with a notable stronger bid finding buyers. No notable fundamentals changes to note besides Europe reinstating lockdowns. Rising cases in the US not seen since July. Something to keep in mind into the close of the week and over the weekend. Will have to check the data and cross reference.

This is the largest notional value position size thus far which equates to about 662k. Chose a strike slightly higher than the original. Was thinking higher but for this particular trade, 11000 made sense to me within the playbook and market development and managing risk.

Noting the large orders for the day and started to look into more additional large order data.

Trade Review

Trade closed OTM as planned gaining 1.76R. This is a weekly options income trade and something that will be added to the playbook. Most important thing I gained from this trade is scaling into a trade into significant size that is working while managing risk. This is one of the largest positions I've put on while working within my defined processes. Will be putting this on when the trade presents itself. Keeping in mind the risks and all inherent current risks playing within the current markets.

Thesis for next week is probable support around 11600 where the week broke out from. Keeping in mind the covid lockdowns in Europe, earnings season going into full swing with some tech reporting next week, and elections. There is data showing rising cases similar to June. Will note how the economy responds to this as this is the unknown variable going forward into the flu season. Will have to see notable weakness fundamentally and technically to place aggressive market short trades seeing the current market strength and volatility. Makes sense to trade from a move 2 move perspective vs. trade 2 hold in the short to mid term.

Key trade process learned is using capital efficiently and managing risk throughout the week. Was able to start the week with a market trade and keep capital on the side to place additional trades. In this case I added to the working trade as other opportunities didn't meet my playbook to place. Better to be patient then force trades. Trade the process & playbook.