LOW Trade on Nov 18, 2020 09:30 from spyrosz: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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spyrosz

 

Earnings release:
* EPS and rev. beat, rev. +28% Y/Y
* comp. sales +30% (health) above +22% est.
* gross margin improved
* Q4 sales & comp. sales guidance approx. 15% above est. (decent)
* +30% YTD, +76% inst. holding

Good #s in accordance with the +30% YTD vs +10.5% SPY, decent guidance.
Quite a gap-down (-7%) in premarket session however, below major 2-2.5-month old daily support levels $156 and $153, trapping a lot of longs higher (+76% instit. holding!).

Remained weak throughout the premarket session, plan was to see if I can get a calculated "short" entry at the opening pop towards R2=2.5-month support level=$153 risking 1% of price, expecting a complete roll-over and a sell-off to S1=premarket lows=$149 area.

Opened strong and immediately squeezed past R1=premarket resist. pivot=$150 right into R2=2.5-month support level=$153.

Got short filler size in-front of R2=$153 risking 1% of price $154.5s, expecting a clean rejection here and sell-off back to VWAP for starters.

LOW rolled over quickly back to VWAP where I covered 60% of size. Stayed with the rest and sat tight to watch price action.

Held VWAP, popped right back to R2=$153, rejected the level again putting a lower high and rolled over.

(-) Missed the add here, and to make things worse had a hotkey mistake and covered rest instead of shorting more at the pop to $152.

Continued watching it as it was forming a fabulous "Desc. Triangle Support Break" pattern in-front of R1=$150-151 area.
When it rejected VWAP to the penny and started the flat-line consolidation in-front of $150.5-151, I knew it was time to get back in.

Got short Tier 0, risking tight stop above VWAP, expecting the break of R1=$150-150.5 and a move lower towards $149-149.5s.

Covered small in-front of R1=$150, bulk at $149.5, held rest with stop at b/e.

Held $149.5, and squeezed back all the way to VWAP, stopping me out.
Such a squeeze was not per the pattern I was playing so I was correct to get the stop before VWAP.

Rejected VWAP and rolled over with continued weakness on tape.

Slowly and very carefully got back in short, risking $150.3s, expecting to clear $149.5 this time and move to S1=premarket low=$148.75-149.

However LOW had a few more squeeze-type moves before rolling over which I had no intention to withstand. Covered all when tape changed and showed that the 1st squeeze was coming.

Rolled over hard as soon as we got market alignment (news about NYC school closures hit tape) but I was not paying attention at that time and I missed it. Ended up selling off all the way to S2=AVWAP from May pullback=$147.

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Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2020-11-18 09:30:29 LOW sell $152.890 short
2020-11-18 09:31:03 LOW buy $151.240 short
2020-11-18 09:49:43 LOW buy $151.950 0
2020-11-18 11:38:07 LOW sell $150.450 short
2020-11-18 11:42:26 LOW buy $150.110 short
2020-11-18 11:56:26 LOW buy $149.720 short
2020-11-18 11:58:53 LOW buy $149.550 short
2020-11-18 12:19:12 LOW sell $150.410 short
2020-11-18 12:20:42 LOW buy $150.680 0
2020-11-18 13:04:06 LOW sell $149.950 short
2020-11-18 13:12:23 LOW sell $149.880 short
2020-11-18 13:12:23 LOW sell $149.880 short
2020-11-18 13:12:23 LOW sell $149.880 short
2020-11-18 13:15:40 LOW sell $149.720 short
2020-11-18 13:19:17 LOW sell $149.730 short
2020-11-18 13:20:42 LOW sell $149.710 short
2020-11-18 13:25:54 LOW buy $149.530 short
2020-11-18 13:37:37 LOW buy $149.670 0


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