TSLA Trade on Nov 18, 2020 14:10 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets still in rotation mode and overall bullish theme seems to be a little extended. Few more names reporting mostly in retail sector with good to better results.

Fundamental Analysis

TSLA is officially being added to the S&P 500 as reported in the after-hours of Monday's close. This is a notable fundamental development for the company and the indices as a whole signaling longer-term growth. Stock shares have to be bought by the indices and any funds benchmarking it. Very bullish order flow in the making. The next day there was profit taking but today there was a gap-up with a Morgan Stanley analyst upgrade. This analyst finally had caught up to the ratings of peers.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.40
AVOL 32.46M
ATR 23.23
Short Float 5%
Inst Own 46%
Shs Float 757.56M
Market Cap 464.97B

Options Statistics

SI 3.597
IV 79.58%
IVP 29%
P/C Ratio 0.401
VWAP 469.802

Haven't seen this many options in the stats. Over 1.6M options for the day. Call volume is extremely high at 1.1M compared to puts at 471K.

Options Positioning

OI 25,229
Vol 7,378
Delta -.02
Theta -.21
Vega .02
Gamma .00

MMM +/- 29.938
Series IV 87.75%

Positioned within a high liquidity level. Next series did not show that much positions.

Noting the volume done at the 500 strike. 146k and notable action in call side activity. This is the most bullish options order flow I have ever seen. Haven't traded TSLA in awhile as well.

Tape Reading

Put selling activity in the lower 400's. Again notable call activity shown in the 500's+.

Technical Analysis

Clear breakout with fundamental catalyst and volume.

Trade Execution + Management Notes

In full size here with updated risk management parameters. Still feel like I could be waayy larger in this trade but have stay objective and true to the development timeline. I had also done additional research for my longer-term IRA portfolio and re-positioned it to include a fund that has TSLA as a 3 largest holding. There are other global macro expansion variables involved but this fundamental change in addition provided more conviction on that sense of execution for the longer-term. Noting managing a shorter-term + longer-term position here.

Trade Review

The trade closed out as planned. I'm starting to hold positions into in expiry but keeping in mind the short Vega risk component if markets and or order flow within the product changes notably. Keeping in mind there is always more risk than reward towards the end of an options contract as a seller. Kept in mind the models statistical data, my positioning, current price action + market development. Noting other areas of markets that are more risk inclined are seeing notable bidding. Covid cases still on higher trend development globally and preventative measures announced but less restrictive due to results from last lockdown. Thesis is market behavior + economic behavior is more aware "this time" as the second wave is in development.

TSLA will be in play with the weekly compression breakout and fundamental change. I have moved longer-term funds to position with index + all institutional benchmarking funds buying programs until 12/21/20 when it will be officially on the S&P 500.

Grading this trade as an A+ being able to capitalize in the shorter-term and longer-term timeframes. Using longer-term account made a way to increase my size here. I can say "One Good Trade" "With Another" in this instance.

As far as execution and sizing up, I have hit buying power limits while continuing to print income with my strategies. I will have to start testing new strategies in options positioning or increase capital to start to level up into higher R's. The former would be the next logical step but keeping open to professional mentoring/coaching then additional firm funding.

Taking it one step at a time as there is more review and work to do. Approaching the end of the year and can get more aggressive in trades in my current working playbook presents opportunities. Testing additional strategies on paper is key here and maintaining a level approach live to current progressive developments.

Additional Forward Research

Will be adding options position chart to note RVOL for the the strike and series. Notable decrease in premium + increase in volume at the opening the next day. About 2k contracts traded within the first 30 minutes. Interesting to use this as a guide for relative option positioning after seeing the order flow. This will provide additional insight to the market participants within the particular strike area.