TSLA Trade on Dec 9, 2020 09:43 from thefudawg: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

WEDNESDAY 12/9

Sold TSLA $590/$580 put credit spreads for about a $3.35 credit since TSLA was finding a lot of support at the 630 and 620 demand zone it has held all week. We had some sell-off yesterday and then a rally into the close. I'm thinking we could see the same thing happen today, but to give me some more time to match this with the S&P inclusion of 12/21 in 2 weeks, I sold puts for next week.

While TSLA was selling off yesterday there was a massive call sweep flow for the $700 calls for next week. Some puts rolled in, but they were mostly further out - dated much after the inclusion. TSLA tumbled today as JP Morgan chase upgraded TSLA from $80 to $90 and said that investors have grossly overvalued it. On top of that TSLA is doing a $5B secondary offering while we're getting inclusion (best time to do so). Asset managers have definitely started to buy TSLA to start mirroring the position for index funds, but I think there's room to go. Our 8 EMA has also ran up to close the gap with TSLA at a prior ATH level of $607.8. POC below at $593.70, I don't see us going much lower than that.

UPDATE 2pm EST- Market continued to sell off and we dropped below prior ATH of $3668 on /ES. TSLA actually lost the $620 level, $607.80 prior ATH and even tapped below POC $593.70 for a little while. The put credit spreads are at -53% here and theoretically, we should pop off this level if this play is still valid.

THURSDAY 12/10
TSLA opened near $570 and hit $620 by PH. We hit the 15 MA and then popped above POC $593.70 and prior ATH high of $607. There was really low volume day as well. This marks the end of

which should be wrapped up tomorrow Friday 12/11. Sammy also says there is $1.3T of TSLA to buy ahead of inclusion, not sure the accuracy, but it's a very positive outlook for these puts next week.

$TSLA Tesla Inc :
- On Dec 9, Tesla, Inc. Completed Sale Of $5.0 Bln (Before Commissions) Of Its Common Stock Through Its "At-The -Market" Offering Program
- Final Settlement Of Shares Sold Is Expected To Be Completed By December 11, 2020

MONDAY DECEMBER 14

For SPX roll week last week, and we saw very controlled selling with TSLA on Thursday reverting to the 15 MA (not quite the 21 EMA). The day before that there was a reversion to the 21 EMA which we bounced really hard off of. Today we saw a lot of increased volume again in TSLA with the 30m squeeze firing (see screenshots below comparing the VolAvg (50) and TSLA definitely led the markets with AMZN. We broke through the $623 level that was hard resistance last week and I missed the initial pullback at open and wanted to wait for another dip, but as it didn't look like we were going to get one, I noticed that TSLA was coiling up and getting ready to break the $636 level that used to be a hard level of resistance.

Once we broke through I had a feeling this would be a level of support so I doubled down on puts at a similar credit right when TSLA was at $636.05 and effectively doubled my position here for $3.50 credit. My thesis is that funds will be continually forced to buy and I am planning on letting these spreads expire at max profit come Friday. Come end of day, we held the 5m cloud/$636 support level great and have a nice 2hr and 15m squeeze going into tomorrow. +30 points and +4.94% today.

After taking a look, I noticed that POC stepped up from $593.70 to $637 - which is very bullish for my case.

Interesting things to note:
- From prep on Sunday we noticed that the prior Sunday's 60 pt OTM calls ($660c) was priced at $6 for last week. This Sunday we noticed that 60 pt OTM calls ($670c) were priced at $19.80 before open. The interesting thing is that the first hypothesis was that they were expecting a very bullish week (with good reason), but later during the session we found that even when TSLA ran 30 points they did not spike the $700 calls much.
- It is quad witching week so we could be seeing names get pinned down, but also the market makers may have intentionally raised the value of the calls so much to really take advantage of retail investors.

TUESDAY DECEMBER 15

JC just brought up something interesting about TSLA and I wanted to share since so many of us are playing it / have it on the watchlist.

He says that some funds have already bought it up ahead of inclusion (which makes sense as why they announce it so early), but the big boys like Vanguard will wait until the last day (FRIDAY, not Monday) to add it so that they can get the allocation perfectly correct with their portfolios ahead of inclusion the following Monday. With that being said, hedge funds most likely front loaded these shares and will end up selling it to the index.

He's still long TSLA, but basically was a warning not to bet your whole account on $700 calls, because TSLA could be pinned with the transactions listed above and because these funds need it to be not as volatile before they add it in (to ensure that their allocations aren't skewed). I don't think it's out of the question that with quad witching, this could end up pinning TSLA in a range this week.

WEDNESDAY 12/16
TSLA opened at $632.50 (around the close from yesterday) and then fell all the way down to $605 and was quickly picked up there. We technically had a 30m squeeze fire to the downside, but the selling pressure was quickly diminished. Earlier in the week we only had a 2h squeeze so the last 2 days have really been some periods of consolidation as we now have a 4h/2h/1h squeeze. We lost the 30m cloud today, which could be the start of the reversal to the downside as we also saw a decent number of small put flow rolling in. With after-hours on - The 4h squeeze just started, the 2h looks like it wants to fire to the downside, and the 1h squeeze is showing selling exhaustion. The signals are very mixed as there is no clear direction.

As the market wants to figure out where it is going to go, I'm going to sit on this trade and allow theta decay to continue to work in my favor. I still believe in my thesis that TSLA will be pinned and the biggest guess I have is that it will be at Weekly/Monthly POC at $637.

My biggest conviction here that today is a shake out is that I've seen this pattern play out for the last 2 weeks, where there will be some consolidation maybe a little ramp up on Monday/Tuesday and then early into the session Wednesday - TSLA will fail and then hit a key level (today it hit $605) and then slowly recover the rest of the day. Then during power hour or after market session we rip and then continue on Thursday/Friday.

Blip from today:

With Tesla stock near $615 the expected move by this Friday is above 6%. Bullish consensus in for this Friday is around $653 and the bearish consensus near $575. The expected move into year-end for the stock is about 13%. In other words, nearly half of the move expected into year-end is being priced for the days leading into the addition.

Flow for this week on TSLA as of Wednesday 12/16:
- Most of bullish flow is from Monday/Tuesday
- Puts were all from today. Based on size, I think this looks like hedges.

THURSDAY 12/17
I was correct in my hypothesis that yesterday was a shakeout. We wiped yesterday's supply zone early today and created new demand zones with buyers clearly in control. The 21 EMA is slowly stepping up and POC was definitely a cannon today. The 30m squeeze fired to the upside, triggering the 1h squeeze firing, and a 2h squeeze histogram reversing from selling to the start of buying momentum by 1pm EST. Heading into power hour, the 4h squeeze looked like it was getting ready to fire to the upside again with strong buying momentum.

POWER HOUR THURSDAY 12/17

ATH $654 is all time cash high for TSLA, with $669 as all-time high including after hours. We started to really ramp and hold that demand zone of $642.92 after it was first established in the morning so I added some 1:2 R/R $630 puts when we dipped back to the 10m 8EMA at $548. There was 1 sweep when I entered the new spreads and half a minute later all these sweep orders can rolling in for the relatively short term. TSLA ends up breaking above $650 and really pushing with volume through cash sessions ATH of $654.32 and tapping the $659 level that Sammy has. The 2h squeeze is firing and the 4h squeeze can fire with a break above $661/662. Looking really good for a gap up tomorrow.

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FRIDAY DECEMBER 18

TSLA gapped up as expected and hit $684.75 as a new ATH. Really strong all day with massive volume, closed the $630/$620 PCS overnight for 57% max profit to free up some capital. Closed the rest at 98% max profit near at the start of power hour.

I had a hypothesis that hedge funds could have overestimated the liquidity needed for index funds so that in power hour we could possibly dump, also with the EOQ rebalance for quad witching. Turned out I was correct in this hypothesis - or they just wanted to shake people out/take profits since it was a golden opportunity.

Either way - I'm happy with how I managed this trade (my largest trade and largest win). In total 68 total puts for a $20K win.