One of thoses trades in which I nailed the difficult 1st move, and completely missed the easy 2nd leg lower + meat of the move.
I was hoping for a premarket gap-up in IWM after yesterday's rally-mode, that would provide a good "short" r/r trade. Premarket plan was to get "short" at the opening pop vs R1=premarket high=$192.5, expecting big rejection at R1, roll-over, break below VWAP and S1=premarket low=$192 and sell-off. Target was S2=gap-fill on daily + yesterday's close=$190.8-191 area.
1st Move
Tried to pop at the open, couldn't even push to R1=$192.5, and rolled over breaking below VWAP.
Got short Tier 0, risking HOD=$192.3, expecting the break and hold below S1=premarket low=$191.8 to add more.
Held S1, reclaimed VWAP, and I trimmed 70% of size quickly the moment it broke HOD. For rest 30% I gave it to $193 whole number. Broke above R1=premarket high=$192.5, put a new HOD=$192.8 and did a pullback.
---> Do-or-Die here: either it would hold support at R1=$192.5 and rally higher stopping me out, or it would fail to hold prices and roll-over.
Tiny add closer to $193 stop in anticipation of the "Die" scenario, and once it rolled over back below R1=premarket high=$192.5 I knew it was game on. Added Tier 0, tightening stop to HOD=$192.8, and then added Tier I on both subsequent lower highs, risking same stop, expecting retest of S1=premarket low=LOD=$191.8-192 at a minimum.
Nice quick flush and new LOD. Covered small into the flush.
Reloaded size on the retracement to VWAP+desc. resistance trendline, risking above R1=$192.5, added momo tiers at the flatline consolidation in-front of S1, risking the lower high at VWAP $192.3, expecting the momo move lower to cover at target S2=$190.8-191.
Covered small into the move lower and new LOD, small add at the sideways action towards the trendline, covered small $20c above target waiting for the final flush to S2 to cover bulk.
The moment it put the Double Bottom at $191.2+tape changed+broke the intraday downtrend, I took everything out. 2.5-hrs of slow grinding lower for $1-1.5/share!! I felt exhausted, didn't want to overstay my welcome.
2nd Move
I saw how it rejected S1=premarket low=$191.8 w/o even making it to VWAP.
Very calculated "short" entry opportunity here:
-- Short risking above S1 & VWAP $192,
-- Add momo tier as sell-oo accelerates breaking thru LOD=$191.2
Got panished by staying on the sidelines, despite watching it + seeing the clear rejection at S1 (that now acted as resistance). Couldn't even make it to VWAP.
(-) As long as momo is there, stay with the trade. This thing never actually reclaimed a support level in order to give me reasons to re-evaluate thesis.
(+) Some nice trading on 1st move. Amazing tape reading and executions!!
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-12-09 09:35:09 | IWM | sell | $191.980 | short |
2020-12-09 09:36:10 | IWM | sell | $191.940 | short |
2020-12-09 09:37:04 | IWM | sell | $191.900 | short |
2020-12-09 09:40:33 | IWM | buy | $192.390 | short |
2020-12-09 09:46:07 | IWM | sell | $192.560 | short |
2020-12-09 09:50:21 | IWM | sell | $192.212 | short |
2020-12-09 09:52:38 | IWM | sell | $192.260 | short |
2020-12-09 09:52:54 | IWM | sell | $192.245 | short |
2020-12-09 10:00:56 | IWM | sell | $192.430 | short |
2020-12-09 10:01:28 | IWM | sell | $192.350 | short |
2020-12-09 10:01:44 | IWM | sell | $192.270 | short |
2020-12-09 10:11:26 | IWM | sell | $192.270 | short |
2020-12-09 10:12:26 | IWM | buy | $191.770 | short |
2020-12-09 10:12:50 | IWM | buy | $191.560 | short |
2020-12-09 10:18:25 | IWM | sell | $191.925 | short |
2020-12-09 10:29:35 | IWM | sell | $192.160 | short |
2020-12-09 10:33:50 | IWM | sell | $192.100 | short |
2020-12-09 10:45:27 | IWM | sell | $191.860 | short |
2020-12-09 10:47:31 | IWM | sell | $191.770 | short |
2020-12-09 10:50:56 | IWM | sell | $191.720 | short |
2020-12-09 10:57:50 | IWM | buy | $191.650 | short |
2020-12-09 10:58:32 | IWM | buy | $191.560 | short |
2020-12-09 11:03:05 | IWM | buy | $191.460 | short |
2020-12-09 11:31:12 | IWM | sell | $191.520 | short |
2020-12-09 11:46:24 | IWM | buy | $191.250 | short |
2020-12-09 11:53:21 | IWM | buy | $191.390 | short |
2020-12-09 11:54:59 | IWM | buy | $191.480 | 0 |
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