AAPL Trade on Dec 15, 2020 15:52 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets recovering with strength from last weeks pull back. Not many earnings catalysts left at the tail end of the quarter to move the markets. Keeping in mind the quarterly ending rebalance. Many economic metrics released this week, FOMC meeting, and stimulus deadline.

Fundamental Analysis

AAPL is considered one of the bell weathers for the market and has been consolidating since the Sept sell-off. It is a large cap, tech, consumer discretionary company that is notably a part of many funds around the globe. The Nikkei reported a 30% iPhone production boost for H121 which a fundamental change and increase in AAPL's business. This also has an effect on companies related to its business line. Overall good for the forward looking markets.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.67
AVOL 94.63M
ATR 3.27
Short Float 0.53%
Inst Own 59.80%
Market Cap 2.17T

Options Statistics

SI 2.556
IV 39.24%
IVP 23%
P/C Ratio 0.242
VWAP 126.364

Making note of the 2.3M contracts on the call side with 34% of it done with 41-60 delta's possibly implying more upside.

Options Positioning

OI 9,206
Vol 3,609
Delta -.02
Theta -.03
Vega .01
Gamma .01
Prob T 4.43%
Prob ITM 2.23%
MMM +/- 3.385
IV Series 32.83%

Noting the 185k volume done today at the 130 call strike. That's 24B if I'm calculating correctly. I don't trade AAPL that often but this does stand out thus far in what I've seen. Tried to get a 115 strike which made the most sense in my playbook and from a supply/demand + risk/reward standpoint. This is while maintaining a responsible use of capital. Keeping in mind of the overall market big picture with the specific trade variables.

Tape Reading

Large selling of Puts in the 115 level I'm positioned and VPOC. This is also above an important AVWAP noted in TA below. Noting the Calls in the 130's which is confirming the directional move today. Makes more sense when TA is combined here.

Technical Analysis

IV 1Y

The high beta names don't need much higher RVOL in relative terms to get momentum going. Maybe from 1.5+ and up as discussed in a meeting today. Make sense knowing it is more of like a market moving asset. The daily volume bar indicates more done on the ASK which is bullish in this consolidation breakout. IV is low in relative terms to March which could have more important longer-term trend implications to the upside as of the current data.

Compression range breakout on RVOL + Fundamental change. This is also above key AVWAP from earnings where they announced the split. HL's established and breakout above 128 to test ATH's in the near future.

Trade Review

The position was held into expiration as planned and OTM. Supply/Demand levels looked to have notable effect on price action throughout the week. Kept in mind the options order flow from entering the trade. There was also an FOMC meeting in-between this trade but there were known variables going into the event, so not so much reaction from any FED related announcements. The more notable aspect of this trade was that it is a high beta stock which correlates with the market. I knew quadruple witching was today and many options expiring so price will usual stay within ranges of quantitative order flows unless there were unexpected events.

I did not add to the position to stay on the conservative side of the trade knowing all these variables that are usually not present. The fundamentals, price action, technical levels, and relative risk is what made sense to me to initiate the trade. Will be keeping this in mind and a new playbook for times when these variables present itself.

There was notable buying in the last minutes of the trading day in the indexes and TSLA which will be included in the S&P 500 by next open. Very notable bullish price action. This was the rebalancing, options expiry's, and imbalances. Noting that having positions based on earlier price action in the day can carry higher risk because such a larger order flow with the institutions. Intraday trading would be the best strategy and using the quantitive data in the models/order flow to gauge more detailed trading strategies.

Overall grading as an A trade keeping in mind of areas where I can improve this newly added strategy in the playbook. My style has been more on the conservative side of things and will continue to collect data and expand ranges when it makes sense to me and or when professional coaching/mentoring merits it.

Will also be re-allocating and rebalancing longer-term portfolios based on this weeks market developments going into H121. There has been strong developments in the coronavirus spreading and I'm personally affected in my area but keeping in mind that will be an aspect to trading/investing but shouldn't weight too much based on the global macro view and where institutions may be implying/leading. Keeping in mind overall health balance from a humbling experience/performance for the year and going forward.