FDX Trade on Dec 17, 2020 10:27 from thefudawg: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Thursday 12/17

FDX has earnings tonight and it's a Thursday which means it's a great opportunity for some IV crush and theta decay to work synchronically.

• FDX recently reverted back to the 21 EMA ($287.74) and and sits just under ATH of $305.66.
• POC is also above at $295.30.
• 30/1h/2h/4h/D/W squeeze. 4h RAF fired to the upside on Wednesday and Daily RAF is Ready
• Market makers have priced in a $18.132 move for earnings and $20 move for the rest of week.

FDX has been sitting around $290 all-day and on average we have seen a $16.27 gap up. With POC at $295 and a $15 pt gap up/close taking us to $305 - the $300 strike is the optimal halfway point which is also a nice round number. On the bearish side, it is quad-witching this week and max pain for FDX is $280. I think the $300 strike is the optimal choice for probability. I think it's possible we a slightly lower than expected gap up due to quad-witching. Either way, I'll be happy to collect the overnight premium.

Risking 5.8 to make 14.2 - decent R/R

EARNINGS
Stock falls despite boom in profit and sales related to online shopping

As the holiday package crunch arrives after a year of increasing online purchases during COVID-19 lockdowns, FedEx Corp. on Thursday reported record quarterly sales that topped $20 billion for the first time and earnings that more than doubled.

FedEx (FDX) reported that fiscal second-quarter earnings rose 114% to $1.23 billion, or $4.55 a share, from $2.13 a share a year ago. After adjusting for a pension-plan change and some integration expenses, the company reported earnings of $4.83 a share, up from $2.51 a share a year ago. Revenue jumped 19% to $20.6 billion from $17.3 billion a year ago. Analysts on average expected adjusted earnings of $ 4.01 a share on sales of $19.43 billion, according to FactSet.

The company declined to offer a specific forecast for the current quarter due to continued uncertainty.

"While the overall environment remains uncertain, we expect earnings growth in the second half of fiscal 2021 driven by the anticipated heightened demand for our services as we continue to execute on our strategic priorities," Chief Financial Officer Michael Lenz said in Thursday's announcement.

The stock declined more than 2% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results. It fell further to be down 3.3% in Friday's premarket. FedEx shares have nearly doubled amid the boom in shipping this year, gaining 93.5% in 2020 through Thursday's regular session. The S&P 500 index has gained 14.6% in that time.

FRIDAY 12/18
- Dec-16-20 Reiterated Cowen Outperform $290 → $328
- Dec-18-20 Cowen and Co. raises target price from $335 from $328
- Dec-18-20 JP Morgan cuts target price to $350 from $356

We dropped about 10 pts from $292 to $282. 4h squeeze keeps trying to flash on and off to the downside about 2 hours before open, and the 15m squeeze showing indications of a selling reversal to buying momentum.

Had a slight pop at right before open but we quickly died. Tried to ramp back up to the 1m cloud which was also PM lows, failed there and quickly started to fade. FDX had no guidance for 2021 (makes sense) and was something I should have paid more attention to ahead of earnings + quad witch could have put more emphasis on max pain ($280) which is right around where we stated chopping around. The ideal exit would have been to take my money and run when we pushed back through 1m cloud/PM low - but I wanted to see if it would work out.

This was definitely a riskier earnings trade and oversized here based on my net gains in TSLA which affected this - but all good net net.

Grade: B- (decent setup, lost points for oversizing, and not taking a 25% loss instead of 75%). Opened at $14.15ish and closed at $18.55