TUESDAY 12/22
Similar play with my AMZN iron condor play for this week on playing the weekly/daily wedge setups that have been proving themselves valid over time. We've stayed well within range of POC since last Wednesday and given this short week right before Christmas, I think there's a good chance that NVDA continues to consolidate through this week and into next. The squeeze is getting very tight on the D/4H/2H squeezes with the 1h squeeze just beginning its consolidation with POC ($530) right in the middle.
The interesting thing is that the weekly wedge lines up perfectly with POC as the centerline. We have the 21 EMA at $531 and max pain for this week at $525. I took the 1:1 odds with 2DTE on the $515/$530/$545 iron fly. Looking to collect quick premium here as NVDA chops within this range. The expected move for the rest of the week is $10 points over 1.5 more days with an ATR of $14 - Market makers aren't expecting NVDA to move much for the rest of this week. With the expected move of $10, I set the strikes $15 wide to maximize both my R/R of 1:1 and some cushion too. By tomorrow, both outer strikes will be inside the wedge which we haven't broken in some time. There's definitely more risk to the downside, but I like the odds here as it seems that NVDA has found a base for now. The $522 level has been great support and the resistance has been at the $539 level.
AFTERHOURS
POC stepped up a tiny bit from $530 to $531.13 and the 21 EMA is at $531.77 and 15 MA at $532. 50 MA is above at $535. Good to see all of the liquidity in this tight zone, which should act as magnets.
WEDNESDAY 12/23
Didn't like the price action here at open so I cut it for a 30 cent loss off contracts that were $7.45 credit in the first 15 minutes. Could have gotten flat or a tiny bit green, but I'm happy I didn't take anywhere near a full loss as I preserved 95% of my risked capital here.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-12-22 15:37:05 | DEC24 20 530 CALL | sell | $4.470 | short |
2020-12-22 15:37:05 | DEC24 20 545 CALL | buy | $0.6200 | long |
2020-12-22 15:37:05 | DEC24 20 530 PUT | sell | $4.370 | short |
2020-12-22 15:37:05 | DEC24 20 515 PUT | buy | $0.7700 | long |
2020-12-22 15:41:22 | DEC24 20 515 PUT | buy | $0.8400 | long |
2020-12-22 15:41:22 | DEC24 20 545 CALL | buy | $0.5700 | long |
2020-12-22 15:41:22 | DEC24 20 530 PUT | sell | $4.790 | short |
2020-12-22 15:41:22 | DEC24 20 530 CALL | sell | $4.060 | short |
2020-12-23 09:45:37 | DEC24 20 545 CALL | sell | $0.1400 | 0 |
2020-12-23 09:45:37 | DEC24 20 515 PUT | sell | $1.080 | 0 |
2020-12-23 09:45:37 | DEC24 20 530 CALL | buy | $1.250 | 0 |
2020-12-23 09:45:37 | DEC24 20 530 PUT | buy | $7.770 | 0 |
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