Takeover craze. Two weeks ago, $PRGO went crazy on a take over bid from $MYL. Now there is another rumor regarding $TEVA bidding for $MYL, which would be a 33B deal. At this point I don't really care about float or momentum, it's all about the stocks reaction to fresh newsflow, so I'll have my eye on the twitter feeds. All three stocks show nasty premarket action. $MYL and $TEVA are up and $PRGO is down. We'll see how this is going to play out.
Stops: 74$ trade 1 & 2/ 73$ trade 3
R: -1/-4/0.2
$MYL presented some really clean premarket levels and was up huge already. First buyer showed up at 74.00$ so I started bidding into it. Buyer lost, I got out. He showed up again at 73.50$, same pattern, same algo, so I went for it again with stop under 73$.
I danced around my position for some time, waiting for the pop to 74.50$ 1st target and 76$ 2nd target, but evertime it traded above 74$ $MYL got hammered down. Stock fell asleep between premarket high and low and couldn't get away from the premarket range between 73$ and 75$ so I left it alone.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2015-04-21 09:30:12 | MYL | buy | $74.270 | long |
2015-04-21 09:30:35 | MYL | sell | $74.060 | 0 |
2015-04-21 09:31:57 | MYL | buy | $74.020 | long |
2015-04-21 09:33:14 | MYL | buy | $74.070 | long |
2015-04-21 09:33:48 | MYL | buy | $74.000 | long |
2015-04-21 09:35:25 | MYL | sell | $73.400 | 0 |
2015-04-21 09:38:35 | MYL | buy | $73.590 | long |
2015-04-21 09:39:07 | MYL | buy | $73.500 | long |
2015-04-21 09:39:14 | MYL | sell | $73.630 | long |
2015-04-21 09:39:28 | MYL | sell | $73.590 | long |
2015-04-21 09:40:55 | MYL | buy | $73.430 | long |
2015-04-21 09:41:18 | MYL | buy | $73.300 | long |
2015-04-21 09:41:38 | MYL | sell | $73.510 | long |
2015-04-21 09:42:52 | MYL | sell | $73.905 | long |
2015-04-21 09:44:42 | MYL | sell | $73.980 | long |
2015-04-21 09:45:37 | MYL | sell | $73.920 | long |
2015-04-21 09:49:11 | MYL | buy | $73.930 | long |
2015-04-21 09:49:30 | MYL | buy | $73.850 | long |
2015-04-21 09:50:37 | MYL | sell | $73.910 | long |
2015-04-21 09:51:02 | MYL | sell | $73.640 | 0 |
2015-04-21 09:51:50 | MYL | buy | $73.800 | long |
2015-04-21 09:51:56 | MYL | buy | $73.750 | long |
2015-04-21 09:52:00 | MYL | buy | $73.700 | long |
2015-04-21 09:53:00 | MYL | buy | $73.939 | long |
2015-04-21 09:53:18 | MYL | sell | $73.970 | long |
2015-04-21 09:54:43 | MYL | sell | $74.000 | long |
2015-04-21 09:54:45 | MYL | sell | $73.990 | long |
2015-04-21 09:54:53 | MYL | sell | $74.000 | long |
2015-04-21 09:58:14 | MYL | sell | $74.050 | long |
2015-04-21 09:59:28 | MYL | buy | $74.000 | long |
2015-04-21 10:00:57 | MYL | sell | $74.080 | long |
2015-04-21 10:02:46 | MYL | sell | $74.000 | long |
2015-04-21 10:02:51 | MYL | sell | $74.030 | long |
2015-04-21 10:03:20 | MYL | sell | $73.690 | 0 |
Not sure there are a lot of algos trading in premarket. I thought they avoided premarket?
Hi guys, thx for your comments. Perhaps I should try to clarify a bit. I definitely don't want to trade this way, but I'm still trying to figure out this setup, so my execution was all over the place today :)
Second, I did not trade premarket, but took levels I would lean on from premarket action.
Third, an algo can also be an algorithmic buy order from a dude, who wants to enter/exit a huge position. You need some screen time in order to spot them and in this case, it was just a passive buy order that was buying up everything below 74$ and above 73.50$ first and 73$ there after.
Those algos actually can give you an edge in case you can spot them. However, you don't want to trade against internalizers and predatory bots.
And last...and I have to say that again and again. I don't trade news. I don't care about news. The only thing I care about is the stocks reaction to news.
News just make sure, that there is enough action in the stock. You want to trade against people, who are forced to take action.
Hey, i think you should avoid thinking about algos and HFTs coz in the end they might become an excuse of a losing trade. We can never spot them with 100% certainty. What you mentioned about a buyer on the tape could be a refresher bid looking to take cheaper shares from people like us who thought that was a legitimate buyer. Just my 2 cents.
Hi Techtrade,
you are definitely right about HFT's being an excuse. In this case, however, I spotted a big buyer by following his actions on the tape. This can give you an edge, but not a winning trade, since this guy could be wrong, too.
It was just a passive buy algo and although the bids got hammered, the stock wouldn't trade down. This can give you a hint on either going long together with the buyer or at least not go get short until the big order got processed and the algo disappeared.
It was a winning trade and I messed up execution, because trade location was aweful. This way I could not size into it right away and had to wiggle myself into a position bit by bit in order to get to full size with an acceptable average close to the risk level. Should have bought the flush into 73$ or the break above 74$ later in the day
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Too much going on here for me to comment on.