MESH1 Trade on Jan 7, 2021 09:36 from Mdefrancisco: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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Mdefrancisco

 

The Big Picture

/ES formed a nice cup with handle base (which I did not recognize) over the last two trading sessions. It appears unaffected by the storming of the Capitol by white people.
S&P 500 within a percent or so of all time highs, so the cup with handle base is important.

Intraday Fundamentals

Its done 65% of the average daily volume by 1030AM. So probably a slightly higher volume day
- not really a news catalyst.
-RVOL elevated during the first hour and throughout the move.

Technical Analysis

The level in question was R2 on the day, R1 had already been eclipsed, as well as a downward trend in the early morning hours that was breached 10 minutes or so before the open, offering nice trend trend long entries.
image

Reading the Tape

This was probably one of the biggest issues with these entries. There were clear lines of sellers at R2 and above, and I was so inflexible about the pattern I might see. Completely ignored a wedging pattern possibility after such a clear brief rejection from the level.
Instead I was dead set on seeing a break thru on volume and a clean pullback like I saw at R1.
- there was also plenty of selling on the bid, which I ignored because of my bias. Once it finally broke, saw nothing but green volume bars. Aggressive pursuit on the ask.

Trade Strategy

This WAS an ascending wedge breakout, on 30 min cup with handle. I did not recognize this however, and was too stuck to 'WHAT I WANT' to recognize 'WHAT IS'.
- Ideally in this set up, we recognize a series of small pullbacks from an important technical level, that decrease in size AND volume. As price and volume compresses we want to be building a position with risk off below the bottom trendline.
-Ihave noticed a few times lately that on extremely short time frames, you get a little pre breakout breakdown, which acts to draw some shorts in before squeezing them out, bringing 'double pressure' to the ask. Longs aggressively entering and shorts aggressively covering.

Really solid Assessment of bullish nature and opportunity. just horrendously managed:

Trade Management

Another big error here. I think using the 337 tick charts is still much too small a time frame. My stops were very poorly placed (not significant to anyone not on a 337 tick). Had they been placed at a new low on a 1 minute chart, there was ROOM TO ADD to a LARGE position with LIMITED RISK. I was too locked in on a trend trend long, and wasn't open to the possibility of a wedge after a small bounce from R2.

Reflection

LOL that I lose money on that set up. Humbling for sure. The kind of set up I see tonight and think damn that's easy money. That's ok tho, this is a learning experience.. lets maybe stay off the artisanal tick chart and stick to what everyone else is looking at.

REMEMBER
CONTEXT, ORDER FLOW, PRICE ACTION
TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MAY BE.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2021-01-07 09:36:37 MESH1 buy $3774.00 long
2021-01-07 09:36:49 MESH1 sell $3772.50 0
2021-01-07 09:37:41 MESH1 buy $3774.25 long
2021-01-07 09:39:44 MESH1 sell $3772.50 0
2021-01-07 09:43:20 MESH1 buy $3773.00 long
2021-01-07 09:46:00 MESH1 sell $3771.75 0
2021-01-07 09:49:02 MESH1 buy $3773.00 long
2021-01-07 09:52:08 MESH1 sell $3772.50 0


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