CCL Trade on Jan 11, 2021 15:55 from tjmiller2001: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Gravatar

Shared by
tjmiller2001

 

I see short term weakness and long term strength for CCL. Good entry at an inflection point. Support at 20 means that this level can act as a launchpad higher or if it breaks my puts will increase in value fast.

Short term weakness based on slow vaccine rollout. This is preventing ships from sailing soon. Also, they were down slightly on the day I entered this based on a bad earnings report (but not bad enough to bring the stock down by a ton). Cash burn is still high but is decreasing. Lots of debt.

Long term strength based on pent-up demand among cruisers. Seeing strength in people buying 2022 cruise tickets. The company said it has enough cash to last it through 2021. Cruises WILL come back. It's just a matter of time. If CCL can stay in business until cruises come back, it will benefit from this. Closed put on a day of weakness for small loss. Made several day trades detailed below

DAY TRADES 1/25 -

Trade 1: Strong entry, bought a call on the lower trendline with 3:1 RR and strength in SPY. Trade thesis immediately started working and I moved my trailing stop to right under a consolidation area. High volume green 1m candles but stayed in bc my PT wasn't hit. Immediately followed by several red 1m candles. I stayed in too long, should've set my trail stop at the top of the previous consolidation zone. About 2 minutes too late on my exit, gave back lots of profits.

Trade 2: Entered at support zone with 3:1 RR. Entry was a little late, waiting for too much confirmation that 19.2 would hold, immediately red but held above my stop. Failed to make a higher high, I kept holding. I could've been more aware of this failure to make a higher high and gotten out. Need to be able to manage a position based on more cues than just 1) Price Target hit or 2) Stop Loss hit. When my level broke I got out fast for a small loss.

ADDED LONG LOT -

On 1/29, I added to my long position when intraday resistance at the 18.70 level was broken. Got in with a 4:1 RR but didn't get as much confirmation as I should've. I entered when a 1m candle broke resistance and I should've entered when a 5m candle closed above resistance.

CLOSED LONG LOT -
On 2/03, Had a level drawn at 19.90 to take profits. It broke above that level, made lower highs and lower lows on the 1m, and broke below that level. I waited too long to get out. Mentally telling myself, change the stop to VWAP, change the stop to 19.80. By the time I exited, contracts had gone from 2.60 to 2.16. I still made $ on this lot. But it was a late exit with poor trade management and discipline. There were opportunities to reenter long when 19.90 resistance was broken then held as support.

Exited last lot when LOD broke. Relieved to be out of this trade since I don't believe as much in my bullish bias anymore.

Lesson Learned: Don't think you're invincible while you're up in a position, be ready to set a trailing stop at a logical level and exit quickly when necessary. If you're long and a stock fails to make a higher high, consider getting out before your stop is hit.

A 1m candle break above resistance could be a fakeout. Wait for a 5m candle to close above resistance, validate resistance as support.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2021-01-11 15:55:30 19 FEB 21 17.5 PUT buy $0.7300 long
2021-01-11 15:59:09 16 JUL 21 20 CALL buy $4.100 long
2021-01-25 14:31:14 19 FEB 21 17.5 PUT sell $0.6300 0
2021-01-25 14:35:27 29 JAN 21 19 CALL buy $0.7300 long
2021-01-25 15:15:34 29 JAN 21 19 CALL sell $0.7400 0
2021-01-25 15:20:43 29 JAN 21 19.5 CALL buy $0.4800 long
2021-01-25 15:40:09 29 JAN 21 19.5 CALL sell $0.4600 0
2021-01-29 14:01:49 19 FEB 21 18 CALL buy $1.990 long
2021-02-03 10:27:36 19 FEB 21 18 CALL sell $2.160 0
2021-02-04 10:31:42 16 JUL 21 20 CALL sell $4.550 0


Leave a comment about this trade!

You need to log into your Tradervue account to leave a comment. If you don't have one,
it takes just a few seconds to sign up, and it's free!

View plans, Sign up for free, or Log in