NFLX Trade on Jan 20, 2021 14:28 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opened strongly and broadly with large cap growth leading. Presidential inauguration day as well contributing the news and capital flow. Precious metals, bonds, and the dollar continuing to under perform and show weakness. Risk assets across the globe with continued bidding.

Fundamental Analysis

NFLX reported big net adds for Q4 and strong EPS/revenue guidance for Q1. Q4 net adds came in at +8.51m vs +6.00m. What's changing fundamentally is increasing margins at 14.4% vs 13.5% with a higher target for 20% this year. They also said they believe they will be sustainably free cash flow positive.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 5.834
AVOL 5.594M
ATR 18.67
Short Float 1.7%
Shs Float 441.8M
Inst Own 81.90%
Market Cap 259.04B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 5.367
IV 39.30%
IVP 14%
P/C 0.645
VWAP 573.006

Elevated volume reflected in the options order flow as well with the report. Higher calls traded indicating the momentum and direction. Noting the large put seller at 535 and ITM call buyers in the mid 500's. Noting that these calls were purchased not showing a higher premium than buying the underlying. It did trend higher as the day progressed.

(Tape was recorded but not included here. Noting that my shares tape was missing data. An occurrence that has been happening with larger amount of order flows. May have to restart the software to fix in the future. Although it wasn't used in today's entry)

Options Positioning

OI S 2,530 L 3,057
VOL S 10,605 L 2,701
Delta S -.01 L -.01
Theta S -.15 L -.07
Vega S .02 L .01
Gamma S .00 L .00
Prob T S 2.77% L 1.33%
Prob ITM S 1.40% L 0.67%
MMM +/- 22.778
IV Series 55.28%

Positioning in high liquidity levels within my current R/R parameters. Also using a spread here to define risk, manage margin fluctuations, and as a hedge for additional movements against the position. Noting after the fact that I should eventually enter with closer ATM strikes dependent on conviction and trade set-up to increase returns now that I have a hedged position.

Technical Analysis

Large breakout accompanying volume primarily done on the ASK. Volatility crush noted in the lower panel.

Breakout with AVWAP's + VPOC level in the lower 500's.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Re-noting that the position should have been placed closer ATM. Needed to zoom out and see the higher timeframe on the weekly. This is a larger move at play.

Trade managed and executed well with an overall B+ grade rating. Reason for this is that the trade followed A+ playbook set-ups but did not use best strikes due to time management when entering the trade. Still need to keep this in mind working other ares of the daily routine. Looking back entering in the 520's would have been reasonable within my process and strengthened risk management parameters.

Side note : Entering these discretionary trades for the week + now starting a systematic and model based strategy. Will be tagging and adding these trades and will not have much to review due the the autonomy of it but looking forward to scale in this area as well.