GME Trade on Jan 29, 2021 15:57 from ColtTrades17: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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ColtTrades17

 
  • SHORT TRADE EXPRESSED USING OPTIONS FOLLOWING DRILL DOWN 1D, 1HR & 15M CHART

  • BOUGHT LONG PUT FEB 5 2021 $52 PUT 1 @ $2.10 THEN ADDED 1 @ $1.49

  • SOLD 2/2/2021 AFTER GAP DOWN for 2.7R

  • First time BIG runner created from Reddit Wall Street Bets, in particular u/deepfuckingvalue it made headlines everywhere.

  • My first inclination that it was time to get ready to short the stock was when almost EVERY post I saw on facebook and other places was some sorry bastard putting life savings, kids college funds, working moms putting their last dollar into the long trade hoping to make money to pay for bills etc... literally everyone wanted to be long GME

  • At this point, I wanted to see what would actually happen after this huge run up. I heard from a trader once, "If everyone is long you should be short" and visa versa. So this trade worked out great for the longs because practically EVERYONE was short the stock, I was not in the long position so I didn't chase and it worked out Short because basically EVERYONE was long the stock, it had decently low float and obviously it's fundamentals are shit... It was a no brainer short but, timing the entry was the tricky part.

  • I saw when it popped over $100 and saw some bearish posts on the stock still however, it still looked strong so I waited.

  • On Thursdays premarket I witnessed the double top at $513/ $508 and the immediate sell off and knew it was getting weak. Knowing that after HUGE kill candles such as the 1hr 7AM $483-$264 there will be a decent pullback, I made an upper trendline and waited.

  • Price hit the trend line pre market and that would have been the perfect entry but, it never made it back to that point all day and I was going to put an options play on so I had to wait. I waited until the end of the day knowing sometimes there will be a big pop from shorts covering not wanting to hold overnight/into weekend.

  • There was no such pop HOWEVER the price was very weak all day failing to get above VWAP and at the end of the day it pulled back into VWAP before close so I entered.
    -On the next day I saw more weakness and more falling below VWAP and starting to extend so I added at the end of the day for an expected bigger move overnight or in the next day or two.

  • ORIGINAL OFFER LIMIT ORDER SET AT $9.99 BUT, WASN'T SURE IF $9.99 WOULD GET HIT SINCE AFTER BIG GAP DOWNS THERE IS USUALLY A DECENT BOUNCE AND DIDN'T WANT TO CHANCE GIVING BACK TOO MUCH PROFIT IF IT DIDN'T HIT AND PRICE BOUNCED.

  • SOLD AT $4.99 BECAUSE I KNEW THAT THE PRICE HAD SPIKED TO NEAR $6 AFTER THE INITIAL BIG KILL CANDLE $480-$260 SO I PUT OUT AN OFFER AT $4.99 TO LOCK IN PROFITS ON A NOW POTENTIALLY RISKY POSTION (SINCE PRICE GAPPED DOWN).

  • TURNS OUT THE OPTION PRICE RAN ALL THE WAY UP TO NEAR $12 AND i COULD HAVE SOLD AT $9.99 (DOUBLING THE PROFIT) BUT, I FIGURED LOCKING IN A $639 PROFIT WAS BETTER THAN THE STOCK BOUNCING BIG TIME AND EITHER BREAKING EVEN OR GOING OFFSIDE DUE TO 900%+ IV.

  • I THINK THIS WAS A GOOD TRADE BECAUSE I RECOGNIZED AND IDENTIFIED THE TOP AT $513 IN GME,

  • I WAITED PATIENTLY FOR THE LOWER HIGH TO BE SET IN AND GOT IN FOR THE SHORT AT THE SIGN OF WEAKNESS (LOWER HIGHS ALL DAY) AND OPENED THE POSITION BEFORE CLOSE OF RTH AND THE INABILITY TO HOLD ABOVE VWAP ALONG WITH MACD HEAVILY POINTING DOWNWARD

  • I ADDED TO THE POSITION SINCE THERE WAS MORE WEAKNESS ON MONDAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE TOP WAS CLEARLY "IN" AND WE'RE ON THE BACKSIDE NOW.

  • THIS GAVE ME CONVICTION THAT THE TRADE WAS WORKING OVERALL AND I HAD THE IDEA THAT WE WOULD GET A BIGGER MOVE IN THE COMING COUPLE DAYS SINCE VOLUME WAS STEADILY RISING ON THE SELL SIDE.
    -MY OPTION HAD LOST VALUE DUE TO THE WEEKEND AND ADDING TO THE POSITION GAVE A LOWER COST BASIS

  • I WOULD HAVE RATHER PICKED UP A CLOSER TO THE MONEY PUT BUT, EVERYTHING WAS VERY INFLATED (900% IV) AND I DIDN'T WANT TO TAKE ON THAT MUCH RISK
    -MY INITIAL TARGET ON GME WAS $112.25, PRICE BOUNCED $13 BEFORE THAT MARK PRE-MARKET SO GETTING OUT WHEN I DID WAS FINE BY ME AT THE TIME SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE RAPID DECAY AND IV OF THE OPTIONS.
    -IF I HAD AN ACTUAL SHORT POSITION AND NOT OPTIONS I CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE HELD THE ENTIRE POSITION TO $112.25 LOOKING FOR A STOP LOSS FLUSH TO BUY THE MAJORITY OF THE POSITION BACK INTO (IN WHICH PRICE DID EXACTLY THAT ON TUESDAY AND HIT $74.22)
    -MY OVERALL BIGGER TARGET WAS $49 BUT I HAD THE IDEA IT WOULD TAKE SOME TIME TO THOUROUGHLY BREAK DOWN BELOW $112 AND HOLDING THE RAPIDLY DECAYING CONTRACTS PAST THE FIRST TARGET WAS A NO-GO

  • Could have held longer, literally doubling r

  • Patience and headspace was great

  • Reading sentiment/participation was great

- Reading chart was great

  • image

Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2021-01-29 15:57:47 5 FEB 21 52 PUT buy $2.100 long
2021-02-01 15:56:37 5 FEB 21 52 PUT buy $1.490 long
2021-02-02 09:30:05 5 FEB 21 52 PUT sell $4.990 0


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