Shared by
KirillMorozov
My HYPO for the day - ROTATIONAL DAY
Market did solid swing towards the downside. My expectation was it would rotate upwards at some point so I trailed stop buy order on the top of the bars. The idea was this downside impulse will fade and once it done to catch up move back towards the vwap. Stops below the previous low.
In fact, market made the small upward move, but not enough to profit from it.
MISTAKES:
1. Didnt respect the slope of the VWAP, which was to the downside.
2. Poor risk/reward ratio
3. Could use stop/reverse tactic, due to quite a noticable market long positioning (participate in S/L action)
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-08 11:21:28 | ESH1 | buy | $3894.50 | long |
| 2021-02-08 11:31:29 | ESH1 | sell | $3892.25 | 0 |
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OBJECTIVE OBSERVATIONS:
MONTHLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up (1st dev) accelerating to 1,5 SD Trying to stretch towards 2 SD.
Market seems stretched but has strong momentum up. Base case momentum to continue until 2 SD 3920, or to reverse.
WEEKLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up shift from 0,5 sd rhythm to 1,5 sd. Some consolidation last week above weekly VAH. Need to resolve it any direction.
PRIOR WEEK value area: outside VA stretching toward 2 SD (3765-3870)
VALUE MIGRATION: up
ACTUAL MARKET PROFILE (CVA): 3820-3835 outside
MIND MEANINGFUL LEVELS: 1855 (3880, prev day VPOC, PRIOR CVA VAH, 1840(cva vpoc))
OVERNIGHT: ROTATIONAL
DEVELOPING VALUE AREA: FLAT
OF: FLAT
SUBJECTIVE ASSUMPTIONS:
HYPO: PROBABLY WE CAN SEE MORE CONSOLIDATION HERE BEFORE TO RESOLVE HIGHER OR LOWER
BASIC PLAN TO FADE EXTREMES.