Shared by
KirillMorozov
My HYPO for the day was a rotational day - fade extremes.
Did so at -2SD. But stop was too tight.
THOUGHTS:
Next time try to average with few contracts.
May be worth of using buy stop technics at the top of the bar - i.e. when momentum is fading.
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-08 11:39:37 | ESH1 | buy | $3889.50 | long |
| 2021-02-08 11:41:41 | ESH1 | sell | $3887.50 | 0 |
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OBJECTIVE OBSERVATIONS:
MONTHLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up (1st dev) accelerating to 1,5 SD Trying to stretch towards 2 SD.
Market seems stretched but has strong momentum up. Base case momentum to continue until 2 SD 3920, or to reverse.
WEEKLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up shift from 0,5 sd rhythm to 1,5 sd. Some consolidation last week above weekly VAH. Need to resolve it any direction.
PRIOR WEEK value area: outside VA stretching toward 2 SD (3765-3870)
VALUE MIGRATION: up
ACTUAL MARKET PROFILE (CVA): 3820-3835 outside
MIND MEANINGFUL LEVELS: 1855 (3880, prev day VPOC, PRIOR CVA VAH, 1840(cva vpoc))
OVERNIGHT: ROTATIONAL
DEVELOPING VALUE AREA: FLAT
OF: FLAT
SUBJECTIVE ASSUMPTIONS:
HYPO: PROBABLY WE CAN SEE MORE CONSOLIDATION HERE BEFORE TO RESOLVE HIGHER OR LOWER
BASIC PLAN TO FADE EXTREEMES.