Shared by
KirillMorozov
My HYPO WAS ROTATIONAL - FADE EXTREMES
on a way up, saw small retracement - placed stop buy order at the recent high. The idea was for rotation to continue. Target is the other side +2 SD.
While market went in my favor, moved stops to BE. Stop was taken out.
THOUGHTS:
not much worth of taking trades near VWAP in the rotational environment (as this is considered as fair value).
MISTAKES:
trade in VWAP area
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-08 12:11:15 | ESH1 | buy | $3894.25 | long |
| 2021-02-08 12:41:46 | ESH1 | sell | $3894.50 | 0 |
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OBJECTIVE OBSERVATIONS:
MONTHLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up (1st dev) accelerating to 1,5 SD Trying to stretch towards 2 SD.
Market seems stretched but has strong momentum up. Base case momentum to continue until 2 SD 3920, or to reverse.
WEEKLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up shift from 0,5 sd rhythm to 1,5 sd. Some consolidation last week above weekly VAH. Need to resolve it any direction.
PRIOR WEEK value area: outside VA stretching toward 2 SD (3765-3870)
VALUE MIGRATION: up
ACTUAL MARKET PROFILE (CVA): 3820-3835 outside
MIND MEANINGFUL LEVELS: 1855 (3880, prev day VPOC, PRIOR CVA VAH, 1840(cva vpoc))
OVERNIGHT: ROTATIONAL
DEVELOPING VALUE AREA: FLAT
OF: FLAT
SUBJECTIVE ASSUMPTIONS:
HYPO: PROBABLY WE CAN SEE MORE CONSOLIDATION HERE BEFORE TO RESOLVE HIGHER OR LOWER
BASIC PLAN TO FADE EXTREEMES.