Shared by
KirillMorozov
MY DAILY HYPO WAS: "PROBABLY WE SEE A BEGINNING OF A CORRECTION. BASE CASE -IMBALANCE DOWN – MINDFUL OF LEVELS BELOW OTHERWISE SEE SIGNS OF ROTATIONAL PLAY"
Here I saw price has touched VWAP from beneath (almost like it did a couple of times before, I read it as VWAP rhythm to the downside). But this time unlike previously where it has reverted shy of VWAP, the price touched VWAP and VWAP switched to flat mode).
I was looking for extra-confirmation for a price to push back to the south so I placed stop order below the previous bar low. Stop is shy of VWAP from the upside.
Get stopped out.
CONCLUSION:
Previous bar low - maybe not valid technic
VWAP was flat, didnt respect that
If I entered at VWAP - probably could place stop at BE
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-09 09:49:05 | ESH1 | sell | $3901.25 | short |
| 2021-02-09 09:50:59 | ESH1 | buy | $3903.50 | 0 |
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OBJECTIVE OBSERVATIONS:
MONTHLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up (1st dev) accelerating to 1,5 SD Trying to stretch towards 2 SD.
Market seems stretched but has strong momentum up. Base case momentum to continue until 2 SD 3940, or to reverse.
WEEKLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up shift from 0,5 sd rhythm to 1,5 sd with some signs of consolidation last prior week VAH. Consolidation need to resolve it any direction.
PRIOR WEEK value area: outside VA stretching toward 2 SD (3765-3870)
VALUE MIGRATION: up (each recent day form own value above previous ones and trade rotationally)
ACTUAL MARKET PROFILE (CVA): 3820-3835 outside
MIND MEANINGFUL LEVELS: 1855 (3885, prev day VPOC, PRIOR CVA VAH, 1840(cva vpoc))
OVERNIGHT: IMBALANCE DOWN
DEVELOPING VALUE AREA: DOWN
OF: NEGATIVE
SUBJECTIVE ASSUMPTIONS:
HYPO: PROBABLY WE SEE A BEGINNING OF A CORRECTION. BASE CASE -IMBALANCE DOWN – MINDFULL OF LEVELS BELOW OTHERWISE SEE SIGNS OF ROTATIONAL PLAY
BASIC PLAN SELL DOWNSIDE RHYTHM TARGETING TO LVLS BELOW (VPOC, CVA, WEEKLY VAH, ETC)