Shared by
KirillMorozov
MY DAILY HYPO WAS: "PROBABLY WE SEE A BEGINNING OF A CORRECTION. BASE CASE -IMBALANCE DOWN – MINDFUL OF LEVELS BELOW OTHERWISE SEE SIGNS OF ROTATIONAL PLAY"
Tried to play rotation to the downside, was spooked buy building volume daily highs (potential stops), vwap up. Closed for small profit.
THOUGHTS AND MISTAKES:
- NEED MORE PATIENCE FOR MARKET TO REVERSE. EXTREMES FADE TRADES-HIGHLY LIKELY TO REVERSE, GREAT R/R CAN GET HERE.
- PLACE STOPS AND WAIT.
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-09 12:14:22 | ESH1 | sell | $3908.75 | short |
| 2021-02-09 12:14:54 | ESH1 | sell | $3909.50 | short |
| 2021-02-09 12:18:57 | ESH1 | buy | $3908.00 | short |
| 2021-02-09 12:26:07 | ESH1 | buy | $3909.00 | 0 |
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OBJECTIVE OBSERVATIONS:
MONTHLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up (1st dev) accelerating to 1,5 SD Trying to stretch towards 2 SD.
Market seems stretched but has strong momentum up. Base case momentum to continue until 2 SD 3940, or to reverse.
WEEKLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up shift from 0,5 sd rhythm to 1,5 sd with some signs of consolidation last prior week VAH. Consolidation need to resolve it any direction.
PRIOR WEEK value area: outside VA stretching toward 2 SD (3765-3870)
VALUE MIGRATION: up (each recent day form own value above previous ones and trade rotationally)
ACTUAL MARKET PROFILE (CVA): 3820-3835 outside
MIND MEANINGFUL LEVELS: 1855 (3885, prev day VPOC, PRIOR CVA VAH, 1840(cva vpoc))
OVERNIGHT: IMBALANCE DOWN
DEVELOPING VALUE AREA: DOWN
OF: NEGATIVE
SUBJECTIVE ASSUMPTIONS:
HYPO: PROBABLY WE SEE A BEGINNING OF A CORRECTION. BASE CASE -IMBALANCE DOWN – MINDFULL OF LEVELS BELOW OTHERWISE SEE SIGNS OF ROTATIONAL PLAY
BASIC PLAN SELL DOWNSIDE RHYTHM TARGETING TO LVLS BELOW (VPOC, CVA, WEEKLY VAH, ETC)