Shared by
KirillMorozov
HYPO: PROBABLY WE CONTINUE MOVE TO UPSIDE. BASE CASE -IMBALANCE UP – BE MINDFUL THAT MARKET OVERSTRETCHED, CORRECTION CAN COME ANYTIME
BASIC PLAN -BUY THE RHYTHM UP, IN CASE OF ANY CHANGE ACT ACCORDINGLY
Tried to play rotation here, at least back to VWAP before to come down in case of correction.
Took 3 lots recalling lots of previous days' missed opportunities.
Got burned and stopped out.
THOUGHTS MISTAKES
1.didnt respect anough my HYPO (all HYPOs by far were brilliant), not very cautioned by possible correction, too many contracts. Market showed signs of weakness, lower highs, volitile bars, could place stop order to sell under meaningful low.
Could entry 2 contracts at -2SD, instead of 3 contracts. Maybe one even better due to risks of correction.
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-10 10:15:19 | ESH1 | buy | $3914.75 | long |
| 2021-02-10 10:15:34 | ESH1 | buy | $3913.00 | long |
| 2021-02-10 10:15:34 | ESH1 | sell | $3914.00 | long |
| 2021-02-10 10:15:48 | ESH1 | buy | $3913.25 | long |
| 2021-02-10 10:19:41 | ESH1 | buy | $3911.50 | long |
| 2021-02-10 10:19:49 | ESH1 | sell | $3909.75 | long |
| 2021-02-10 10:19:49 | ESH1 | sell | $3909.75 | long |
| 2021-02-10 10:19:49 | ESH1 | sell | $3909.50 | 0 |
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OBJECTIVE OBSERVATIONS:
MONTHLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalanced up aprox 1,5 SD rhythm. Trying to stretch towards 2 SD.
Market seems stretched but has strong momentum up. Base case momentum to continue until 2 SD 3950, or to reverse.
WEEKLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up, out of 2SD. Looks overstretched.
PRIOR WEEK value area: outside VA stretching toward 2 SD (3765-3870)
VALUE MIGRATION: up (each recent day form own value above previous ones and trade rotationally)
ACTUAL MARKET PROFILE (CVA): 3820-3835 outside
MIND MEANINGFUL LEVELS: 3855 (3895 prev day VPOC, PRIOR CVA VAH, 1840(cva vpoc))
OVERNIGHT: IMBALANCE UP
DEVELOPING VALUE AREA: UP
OF: POSITIVE (BUT FLAT)
SUBJECTIVE ASSUMPTIONS:
HYPO: PROBABLY WE CONTINUE MOVE TO UPSIDE. BASE CASE -IMBALANCE UP – BE MINDFUL THAT MARKET OVERSTRETCHED, CORRECTION CAN COME ANYTIME
BASIC PLAN -BUY THE RHYTHM UP, IN CASE OF ANY CHANGE ACT ACCORDINGLY