Shared by
KirillMorozov
HYPO: PROBABLY WE CONTINUE MOVE TO UPSIDE. BASE CASE -IMBALANCE UP – BE MINDFUL THAT MARKET OVERSTRETCHED, CORRECTION CAN COME ANYTIME
BASIC PLAN -BUY THE RHYTHM UP, IN CASE OF ANY CHANGE ACT ACCORDINGLY
Bought in line wuth HYPO shy of VWAP. Stop -1SD, Target +2 SD.
Moved Stop to BE wathing market fails to get higher high.
THOUGHTS & MISTAKES:
1. VWAP was flat
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-10 09:40:52 | ESH1 | buy | $3920.25 | long |
| 2021-02-10 10:01:59 | ESH1 | sell | $3920.50 | 0 |
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OBJECTIVE OBSERVATIONS:
MONTHLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalanced up aprox 1,5 SD rhythm. Trying to stretch towards 2 SD.
Market seems stretched but has strong momentum up. Base case momentum to continue until 2 SD 3950, or to reverse.
WEEKLY ENVIRONMENT: imbalance up, out of 2SD. Looks overstretched.
PRIOR WEEK value area: outside VA stretching toward 2 SD (3765-3870)
VALUE MIGRATION: up (each recent day form own value above previous ones and trade rotationally)
ACTUAL MARKET PROFILE (CVA): 3820-3835 outside
MIND MEANINGFUL LEVELS: 3855 (3895 prev day VPOC, PRIOR CVA VAH, 1840(cva vpoc))
OVERNIGHT: IMBALANCE UP
DEVELOPING VALUE AREA: UP
OF: POSITIVE (BUT FLAT)
SUBJECTIVE ASSUMPTIONS:
HYPO: PROBABLY WE CONTINUE MOVE TO UPSIDE. BASE CASE -IMBALANCE UP – BE MINDFUL THAT MARKET OVERSTRETCHED, CORRECTION CAN COME ANYTIME
BASIC PLAN -BUY THE RHYTHM UP, IN CASE OF ANY CHANGE ACT ACCORDINGLY