Shared by
KirillMorozov
The idea behind this bunch of trades was following:
weekly still feel rotational
The market seems too overstretched (price came too fast too high) in face of weekly 2 SD +heavily positioned for Friday.
Price and OF seem to roll over.
first short in a sign of weakness, below the recent low. Stops above 2 SD. Target VWAP
Failed to get one more short at 2 SD lvl here
Added shorts in line with taking down recent lows (hope that some bulls hid stops there)
In addition, we had a space between intraday volumes - price should move down quickly.
Took quick profit for 1 contract. Then price just crushed lower, trapped bulls who suffered pain during first leg down, capitulated. Closed 2 contracts at VWAP.
Reloaded short on a small upside pullback anticipating one more leg down (should not do this) - more like a greed FOMO trade.
Poor entry and exit (forgot to place target) - missed a move - closed almost at BE
LESSONS LEARNED:
1. BIG LEVELS BETTER PLACE A TICK LOWER TO GET FILLED
2. INSTANTLY PLACE sL AND TARGETS.
3. NO FOMO. LESS EMOTIONS
4. LAST TRADE SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AT ALL.
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-12 10:54:54 | ESH1 | sell | $3916.00 | short |
| 2021-02-12 12:30:24 | ESH1 | sell | $3915.00 | short |
| 2021-02-12 12:37:40 | ESH1 | sell | $3913.50 | short |
| 2021-02-12 12:40:59 | ESH1 | buy | $3913.00 | short |
| 2021-02-12 12:45:49 | ESH1 | sell | $3915.50 | short |
| 2021-02-12 13:19:17 | ESH1 | buy | $3910.25 | short |
| 2021-02-12 13:20:18 | ESH1 | buy | $3910.00 | short |
| 2021-02-12 13:22:44 | ESH1 | buy | $3912.50 | 0 |
| 2021-02-12 13:27:45 | ESH1 | sell | $3912.25 | short |
| 2021-02-12 13:58:18 | ESH1 | buy | $3911.50 | 0 |
Comments
KirillMorozov
- Market read - 4 (stretched higher before went lower, rotation failed at the end) 2.Execution -3 (not optimal, too much bustling around, forgot to put target, fomo entry)
- Trade idea - 4 (first part not bad, last trades awfull)
- R/R - 4 (could be better due to entries) Overall: 3,75 (C)
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ES HYPO
• Monthly VWAP – Fading bullish momentum, more rotational recently. Making lower highs. May be considered as a pullback towards 0,5 rhythm which were respected 4 times but if ~3880 is broken can go lower 3852 (VWAP 1st target)
• Weekly VWAP – Rotational, fading swings to the both sides, may be consolidation before spike any direction.
• MP – General migration flat for recent days. Last 4 days seems to have balanced out. Have merged these days.
• O/N – Currently 4hr before open – Imbalanced down. Slow trend so far
• Rhythm Daily/DVA – TBC
• OF – Slightly negative
• Price is inside CVA
Plan
• PVAH 3910 – See how price interacts with this region. Could act as resistance. Go short target PVAL 2sd – stop just above 2SD weekly VWAP?
• PVAL 3895 Support to buy?
• Keep an eye on monthly support levels around 3882 if break-short?