My main focus was at weekly, which seemed rotational to me. Both sides swing (volatility decreased) - a sign of consolidation before a decisional move to any direction.
I was anticipating a boring day within a tight range.
Bearish bias intuitively. Due to monthly rhythm slowdown.
ETH looked bearish but with the start of RTH, the market started to look bullish, OF become positive, the price made a bullish acceptance, then started to accelerate the rhythm, I failed to get long from the VWAP and I was watching how price interacts with CVA VAH.
Lots of buyers came along in the OF, classic absorption. Sellers placed orders at CVA VAH which had a confluence with weekly VAH.
The question was who will win. It seemed to me bulls were taking control, so I place a buy stop order 1 tick shy of CVA VAH in case of a breakout to the upside. I thought pressure will accelerate and push sellers like a cork from the champagne bottle (for sure some of the stops were hidden behind this area). Stops below the recent low.
The market pushed a little up through resistance level. I got filled, 3 ticks up and the market reverted back. I wasn't stopped out before the market has undertaken another attempt to get through resistance.
I placed stop under resent low + a reverse stop to sell because to me market draw classic head and shoulders pattern, so it must at least fall down the distance from top to shoulders.
In fact, the market failed to reach my targets, everything was so quick so I am not sure I could have succeeded to cover it even in case it did meet my targets.
Buyers furiously pushed the market higher through resistance as I was expected initially.
LESSONS LEARNED:
1. Next time try priority to enter straight at levels of interest, not overcomplicating stuff.
To be completely fair when the price touched VWAP, was not an obvious buy signal to me (although it was a flush of inventories - i forgot about it). So may be breakout was not a bad idea
2. In case of trading breakout don't put stop to close to the resistance support zone due to it can be filled without breaking level. 4 ticks looks ok.
3. Put all stops and targets instantly with entering the deal, the market can be quick.
4. Don't try to apply extra methods before you are good at basic instruments. Stick to NV methods only.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021-02-12 10:14:47 | ESH1 | buy | $3910.25 | long |
2021-02-12 10:31:21 | ESH1 | sell | $3906.50 | 0 |
2021-02-12 10:31:21 | ESH1 | sell | $3906.50 | short |
2021-02-12 10:37:37 | ESH1 | buy | $3910.75 | 0 |
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Market read (bullish)- 5
Levels read (CVA VAH) - 5
RHYTHM read - 4
OF read- 5
TRADE IDEA LONG - 5
Execution - 1 (overcomplicated, doesn't match to NV style)
Overall=4,16 (B)