PLTR Trade on Feb 16, 2021 15:46 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opening mixed on a shortened week. Still many companies to report earnings and estimate revisions + forward guidances looking positive. Global macro activity continually looking constructive towards risk on assets.

Fundamental Analysis

PLTR is a software platform for the intelligence community within the US military. It offers data analysis software solutions. The company reported mixed 4Q20 results with weaker guidance showing slowing growth. FY21 at 30% vs. FY20 at 47%. There is a share lock-up expiration that took place as well enabling 80% of stock held by executives and investors to be for sale. The tape and price action is showing the combined aspects of earnings reactions + additional shares supply increasing in the market.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.47
AVOL 72.0M
ATR 3.51
Short Float 5.75%
Shs Float 1.06B
Inst Own 14.30%
Market Cap 50.32B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 2.712
IV 124.62%
IVP -
P/C 0.834
VWAP 28.923

Noting the higher calls traded but more on the BID possibly implying more on the sell side. PUT purchasing more on the ASK side confirming price action lower for the day. Large put sell order of 4k contracts at 25 EOD which is a 10M notional value position if exercised.

Options Positioning

OI 47198
VOL 36315
Delta .04
Theta -.05
Vega .00
Gamma .02
Prob T 5.39%
Prob ITM 2.59%
MMM +/- 3.557
IV Series 158.42%

OTM single leg call write option with conservative positioning / risk parameters. Also noting less capital allocated to manage gamma risk if scenario arrises.

Technical Analysis

IV decreasing and more volume done on BID with HTF aggressive move to the downside.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Trade closed with a 50% profitability on total premium position overnight. This was a set target exit order that executed automatically. I had set this overnight after seeing news that Cathie Wood's and George Soro's funds were holding and or adding large longer-term position. It gapped up the price in the early pre-market and at the open notable buying took place retesting 30. The trade executed on the pull back before the second retest high which later on during the day a sell off and break of Y low occurred.

Trade was managed well as is was technically in a range and buyers in control at the open. The large inflow of buy orders in the morning usually signal institutional buying which was already seen in the prior days data. The risk was to the upside if price held bid and trended higher. Reviewing the close after, the sellers are back in control and lock-up expiration may accelerate price to the downside. It can turn out like a sell the news event and price can reverse on the actual date. But solely seeing price action, the momentum is to the downside.

Grading overall trade as an A with good risk management and pre programmed exit strategy. Keeping in mind going back to strong technical routes involving scalp trading. The trade can be re-entered tomorrow with similar strategy but would prefer fresh catalyst/news providing greater liquidity and order flow.