WMT Trade on Feb 18, 2021 15:41 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opened and trading lower towards the end of the week. Tech seeing more selling but longer-term trends and broad breadth still strong. Possibly start of another shorter to mid term correction/consolidation. More economic reports reports and retail/spending metrics.

Fundamental Analysis

WMT has been performing well in the prior reporting quarters but delivered a miss on EPS (1.39 vs. 1.51 consensus). Revenue was up 7.3% but the company was signaling tailwinds from recent quarters to become less/moderate moving into FY21 / FY22. It will be ramping spending to invest more in the business. The earnings miss and guidance caused investors and markets reaction to take profits from the recent price rallies.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 4.34
AVOL 7.41M
ATR 2.68
Short Float 1.09%
Shs Float 1.38B
Inst Own 30.20%
Market Cap 388.27B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 3.334
IV 26.80%
IVP 14%
P/C 0.524
VWAP 138.818

ASK + BID volume confirming momentum and direction of earnings reaction. Notable put buying EOD implying some hedging into 2nd day post ER. Noting the tape on PLTR as a follow-up to a previous trade with incredible volume done at 25. Thinking this could set-up up a shorter term bounce soon just looking at the price action the past 2 days.

Options Positioning

OI 18169
VOL 6335
Delta .03
Theta -.04
Vega .01
Gamma .02
Prob T 6.03%
Prob ITM 3.00%
MMM +/- 1.892
IV Series 24.91%

Was fighting for price here on position. Got an ok positioning price considering the change on tape and timeframe.

Technical Analysis

Notable volume on done on BID with IV decreasing. More momentum to the downside closing with new intraday lows and holding below 140.

136 look like an area of potential support looking at VPOC. Price below two noted AVWAPS that showed prior areas of S/R.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Noting a good amount of buying power left here for this A+ trade set-up. Managing my risk with size here with a single leg short option scalp. Possibly something I can work to improve and further maximize capital management more effectively.

Grading overall trade with an A. Playbook A+ setup was there, sized in responsibly, and managed the trade as planned. These are great trades proving edge in this earnings season and previous quarters. Keeping in mind to keep the scalps in fresh catalysts more notably in earnings and fundamental ones. Continuing to look where to add more size. In this example I could have increased size probably another 25% to be in a full size position. Will factor this in for future related scalp set-ups.

Noting many analysts on day 2 upgraded and maintained ratings. WMT looks to be a longer-term buy but 135 would be a longer-term support level to test. Momentum is still to the downside but the market remains in a strong uptrend.