NVDA Trade on Feb 25, 2021 15:55 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Notable profit taking and sell-off for markets across the globe into the EOM. High short interest stocks back in play with sentiment group buying and short coverings. Yields tapping 52 week highs even with Fed indicating soft/temporary inflation and long away from QE. Economic reports still coming out strong along with earnings reports with more beats. Markets seem to be digesting good news to the downside. Consolidation and profit taking is in play within a more notable strong uptrend from a macro view.

Fundamental Analysis

NVDA reported strong EPS and REVS with higher guidance. The company is positioned very well to grow in multiple areas of the chip market (EV, gaming, crypto mining, data cloud, AI). There is a notable global chip production but this will be temporary and resolved within the mid to higher time frame. It has performed well on the yearly but profit taking along with the market both following in suit.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.86
AVOL 7.11M
ATR 23.13
Short Float 1.10%
Shs Float 593.09M
Inst Own 69.40%
Market Cap 327.34B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 2.524
IV 53.68%
IVP 25%
P/C 0.52
VWAP 547.454

Marginally higher call volume on the BID and put volume on the ASK implying the directional order flow confirming price action. Large call sell orders at the open and put buy orders into the close.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (N/A)

Options Positioning

OI 1669
VOL 2649
Delta .01
Theta -.08
Vega .01
Gamma .00
Prob T 1.45%
Prob ITM 0.72%
MMM +/- 17.522
IV Series 59.58%

Original planned position was on the 600 strike but managing risk across 3 other securities all on the short scalp side and at max allocations. The price traded and held a key support level. There may be value buying in this area.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (N/A)

Technical Analysis

IV seems to be rising but this is after earnings and with global market profit taking into EOM. Move volume done at BID and key area of support.

Key HTF AVWAP + VPOC area BID's from 09/2020 highs.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

EOM notable market sell-off on key earnings day. Managing risks responsibly and all A set-ups in my playbook. Size and risk on with a basket of stocks. Looked into shorting a back in play high short interest/market sentiment driven stock (GME) but the security was flagged/blocked by the broker for certain orders due to SSR and risk on the brokerage side. The model was indicating a favorable edge along with my discretionary analysis. I placed all orders after as this was the primary thesis but to be higher weighted and leading in my total allocations.

Overall grade A and scalp trade executed as planned. The buyers are in control given the strong technicals and hold of key AVWAP + VPOC. This is a leader in the semiconductor industry and upside or downside resolution here would make implications for the overall market as a whole.