MRNA Trade on Feb 25, 2021 15:54 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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Marius

 

Notable profit taking and sell-off for markets across the globe into the EOM. High short interest stocks back in play with sentiment group buying and short coverings. Yields tapping 52 week highs even with Fed indicating soft/temporary inflation and long away from QE. Economic reports still coming out strong along with earnings reports with more beats. Markets seem to be digesting good news to the downside. Consolidation and profit taking is in play within a more notable strong uptrend from a macro view.

Fundamental Analysis

MRNA missed EPS and crushed REV. Guidance is good but the company is among the high flying stocks. There are ongoing developments and studies in place with expanding roll-outs through 1H21 and forward. It was initially bid up in the pre-market but notable profit taking proceeded.

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Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 0.65
AVOL 23.15M
ATR 11.93
Short Float 4.12%
Shs Float 356.20M
Inst Own 49.20%
Market Cap 56.98B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 1.879
IV 85.83%
IVP 12%
P/C 0.458
VWAP 152.844

Noting the higher volume of puts at the ASK. Early opening order flow but looking mixed.

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Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (N/A)

Options Positioning

OI 1985
VOL 763
Delta .03
Theta -.13
Vega .01
Gamma .00
Prob T 4.27%
Prob ITM 2.09%
MMM +/- 4.723
IV Series 94.60%

Noting higher volume and open interest activity and positioning on the call side. Still thinking mixed here but combining this after ER and lower relative RVOL. Possible unknown catalyst speculating with the order flow. Managing alerts more closely on this position.

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Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (N/A)

Technical Analysis

Similar to NVDA with IV on HL's. Notable reverse wick on the daily noting profit taking and downside momentum. Way more volume done on the BID relative for today's movement.

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Recent key AVWAP + VPOC area bids. 140 inflection. Looks like a value area for buyers but dependent on macro market order flow.

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Trade/Risk Management & Review

EOM notable market sell-off on key earnings day. Managing risks responsibly and all A set-ups in my playbook. Size and risk on with a basket of stocks. Looked into shorting a back in play high short interest/market sentiment driven stock (GME) but the security was flagged/blocked by the broker for certain orders due to SSR and risk on the brokerage side. The model was indicating a favorable edge along with my discretionary analysis. I placed all orders after as this was the primary thesis but to be higher weighted and leading in my total allocations.

Exited the scalp earlier than planned due to seeing the pre-market trading higher and positive analyst upgrades. Jim Cramer (CNBC news anchor) also mentioned the company might have a "Vaccine Against Cancer". The price action on day 1 ER and into the opening pointed to buyers taking control but faded sharply. I had orders set to exit earlier but the limits were not hit. I decided to to scalp the trade for 57% on profitability target. The model signaled an extremely favorable turnout in my position also. I decided seeing the strong price action and sellers unable to take price to new lows while the indexes were making LL's. There could have been the slightest chance that the news was true and or the market buying into it. Then again that could have already taken place at the open.

Left some on the table and didn't need the extra risk while 2 other positions were still on. I think I made the best decision here from evaluating price action, news, and market sentiment. In the future I may be able to scale out instead of scalping out but keeping in mind that the trades purpose was the latter. This might be categorized as a micro scalp in relative terms. Overall grade A.

Newswire feed
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Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2021-02-25 15:54:41 26 FEB 21 180 CALL sell $0.1400 short
2021-02-26 10:44:39 26 FEB 21 180 CALL buy $0.0600 0


Comments

2021-02-27 17:05:05
 

Nice analysis and trade summary. Thanks for sharing!

2021-02-27 18:35:45
 

Thanks, and you're welcome !

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