TGT Trade on Mar 2, 2021 15:22 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opened and traded flat after yesterdays first day of monthly inflows and bounce. Yields pulling back this week and bonds globally catching a temporary bid. Value, financial, energy, international, and commodity areas still stronger. Micro to small caps also showing out performance recently. Still in full earnings season and highly shorted companies continuing to find overwhelming buyers picking up demand and absorbing supply.

Fundamental Analysis

TGT reported an EPS beat and notable sales beat by 20.5%. It has been coming off of back to back notable earnings beats. There is some hint of sales growth to taper off in the near future due to vaccine rollouts and economic re-openings. It is one of the better performing companies in its area ahead of WMT. With sales growth given to taper off after a strong run up the past year the future is a bit uncertain. Along with that they did not provide guidance which may have some institutions/investors taking profits and or re-allocating to additional areas for continued growth.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 6.36
AVOL 3.47M
ATR 5.56
Short Float 1.05%
Shs Float 499.63M
Inst Own 81.00%
Market Cap 87.66B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 6.42
IV 32.98%
IVP 15%
P/C 0.432
VWAP 179.809

Interesting higher call side volume but more on the bearish side looking at the tape order flow.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI S 1273 L 236
VOL S 1166 L 365
Delta S .03 L .01
Theta S -.10 L -.03
Vega S .01 L .00
Gamma S .00 L .00
Prob T S 4.73% L 0.97%
Prob ITM S 2.33% L 0.48%
MMM +/- 6.8
IV Series 48.26%

Should have been larger reviewing the metrics. Keeping in mind still early into the week but catalyst and order flow merited favorable upscaled positioning. Allocation and risk management is key and size is adequate according to those parameters. Will have to work on this when taking trades to the next level.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

IV crush and HTF technical breakdown on a catalyst. Almost all daily volume done on BID and notable selling momentum into supports.

AVWAP form 20Q3 earnings gap and VPOC area of value at 170. Below key AVWAP highs noted and 177 inflection.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Trade executed and graded as A. Consider to add more size and or closer strikes. Scale into more larger position size responsibly and appropriately with added capital. These are key playbook trades for the current and growing future business.