JD Trade on Mar 11, 2021 15:34 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opening with renewed and continued strength in the technology and growth areas sold last week. The new stimulus has been signed by Biden and yields have continued to retrace away from the highs. Tail end of the current earnings season as the next quarter is coming up.

Fundamental Analysis

JD reported a beat on EPS of 1.49 vs 1.21 and REV of 34.4B (up 31.4% yoy). This is also in an area of consumer discretionary spending/internet retail. This plays a part of a recent theme for retail both online and brick and mortar. This was good a earnings report for the company and not seeing anything negative aspects to my knowledge. This leads to more of a technical based trade but weighing in on the overall picture.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.29
AVOL 10.76M
ATR 4.34
Short Float 2.11%
Shs Float 1.33B
Inst Own 45.90%
Market Cap 145.40B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 2.322
IV 47.55%
IVP 13%
P/C 0.359
VWAP 90.462

Noting the higher amount of calls traded at the BID possibly implying more weight on the sell side. Large call write order of 500 at 90 in the AM session. Seeing mixed order flow data indications. I'd expect to see more put side buying on the ASK implying more downside action. Maybe value call buying in play.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 2058
VOL 335
Delta .02
Theta -.04
Vega .00
Gamma .01
Prob T 2.94%
Prob ITM 1.45%
MMM +/- 3.424
IV Series 68.97%

Positioned conservative and within my risk parameters. Also scaling in an increased lot size as a step up. Noting the heavy call side activity.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

Decreased IV and more volume done on the BID. HTF 90 S holding. Sellers in control since the 52 week high.

Noting the stuffed selling in the pre-market and open. Notable selling but buyers stepping the rest of the day and or price stabilizing w/o active profit taking. AVWAP low hold from last earnings and AVWAP high from high RVOL day in-between earnings. Noting 95 and 85 as mid-term to longer-term inflection levels.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

This trade ended up weighing in more on the technical side in after hours review. Will see how the markets come in tomorrow. Fundamentals show longer-term favor but aggressive profit taking and selling was notable on day 1.

JD gapped down the next day with the momentum on day 1. It is in a HTF VPOC area and in a greater area of interest for buyers and value. Noting that the price action from the AM session was more notable than what I interpreted in the order flow. +1 for the technical analysis but part of an overall picture and trade thesis.

Great set-up and scalp trade. Position size was appropriate for the trade but continue to scale responsibly and where it makes sense in the trade parameters.