T Trade on Mar 17, 2021 15:12 from tjmiller2001: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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tjmiller2001

 

Bigger picture: On the Daily chart, T has found support around 28.40 and resistance around 30.20. T had recently bounced from support to resistance and was consolidating above 29.60 and below 30.30 for the past 8 days. SPY was near ATH and the big event of the day was waiting for the Fed to release a statement at 11:00, which is 2:00 on the Tradervue chart.

The market reacted positively to the Fed statement, with SPY jumping from 394 to 396 in a minute. Then it held those gains and drifted higher for the next few hours until close.

Looking at the 1 minute chart, you can see the divergence between SPY and T starting at 2:00. While SPY took the Fed news as positive, it sent T lower. I expected SPY to stay strong, as I believed this catalyst was enough to drive institutional money into equities, now that the possibility of an interest rate hike was no longer as likely. But I didn't want to blindly short T with it right above its 30.00 support. This has been a key level the past few days.

I planned to wait for 30 to break as support then I would enter at 29.98 with a SL at 30.02 and a TP at 29.58. This gave me a 10:1 RR, which is great. The break of that 30 level was key, and I was watching level 2 closely to see what it looked like. Around 12:09 I was watching the bid size at 30.00 to decrease. That happened and I saw the level break.

I had a good entry, setting my order and letting it get filled on a wick up. I liked that 30.00 struggled to hold on the bid but I wanted to see a bigger size on the ask at 30.00. A low ask size at 30.00 meant that not many people were eager to sell here, which meant they weren't fearful of the drop that I was betting on. T then uptrended but struggled to find bids at 30.02 around 12:18, then fell. That looked to be a lower high and I was proud of myself for being patient through the noise, waiting to exit only if my rules were triggered.

Psychology: Around 12:21 I felt detached from the position and ready to take a small loss. This is the mindest I need. It's okay to take losses in trading as long as they are small. It's not okay to get your self-worth tied up in a position, holding it for too long because you don't want to be proven wrong.

Around 12:24, it was looking like T just put in a lower high and the short thesis was strong. I wanted to be sized up for the move down since there wasn't evidence of eager buyers at 30.02. I wanted more confirmation to enter a second contract, so I decided to wait for a break of 29.96. Looking back, there wasn't much logic to my choice of 29.96, I just felt that was far enough away from 30.02 to support the downtrend. I saw a lower low and set my order, but price immediately launched back up at 12:30.

It quickly got back above 30.00 but consolidated under 30.02 for a little bit. Then 30.02 broke hard and I got out of both contracts. My exit wasn't great, it was probably a little worse than good. There was some reluctance to get out. But when I became aware of this feeling, I didn't fish for an extra dollar, I got filled near the market price and got out before price kept rising.

Notes: When reviewing with OnDemand, look at the 12:30 candle to see if there was a change in character or any signs of a reversal coming.

Lesson Learned: I think I could've waited for more confirmation to enter the second lot. At 29.96, price is still pretty close to the key level. In the future, give your starter lot a little more room before a momentum lot is added.

Also, as of 3/17/21, I am only profitable on 2 of the 10 intraday fade trades I've tried. That tells me this is a strategy I'm not good with yet, and I should be sized down on. I thought this opportunity warranted two contracts, but I don't have enough of a proven track record with this setup to be sizing up on it quite yet.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2021-03-17 15:12:57 16 APR 21 30 PUT buy $0.9700 long
2021-03-17 15:30:27 16 APR 21 30 PUT buy $0.9800 long
2021-03-17 15:37:52 16 APR 21 30 PUT sell $0.9300 long
2021-03-17 15:38:06 16 APR 21 30 PUT sell $0.9300 0


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