PDD Trade on Mar 17, 2021 14:53 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opening flat for the day with FOMC. Few in play names but market usually lower volume before FOMC meeting and press release after. Keeping in mind not to force any trades due to the current developing environment but if trading edges and opportunities are in line then a scaled approach would be within parameters

Fundamental Analysis

PDD operates as an e-commerce platform in China. They reported a Q4 EPS loss of 0.02 with REV of 4.07B vs. 2.87B. Average monthly users up 50% YOY. Founder Colin Huang a former engineer with GOOGL started PDD with a goal providing a "Costco + Disney" produce shopping experience. He resigned as chairman. Possible fundamental change within the company coming into play and seen with some of the price action after report.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 3.38
AVOL 8.07M
ATR 12.86
Short Float 3.07%
Shs Float 512.31M
Inst Own 31.50%
Market Cap 184.81B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 2.432
IV 61.08%
IVP 31%
P/C 0.685
VWAP 147.593

Higher call activity at the BID and noting call write orders AM session possibly implying shorter-term direction.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 2697
VOL 106
Delta .01
Theta -.10
Vega .00
Gamma .00
Prob T 1.91%
Prob ITM 0.93%
MMM +/- 7.759
IV Series 81.91%

Positioning more conservatively in this trade due to executing remotely on mobile and with limited tools and focus. Scaled back but still well within parameters.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

IV crush post earnings, gap down, but bought up and more volume on the ASK. Notable buy wick on the daily candle and aggressive buyers at 140. That will be a key support level in the near term. Sellers with some favorable degree on the momentum and gap down with burden on buyers. Noting the failed breakout and stuff at 160. Coupling this with gap down follow through is bearish. 140 S is the key level for buyers. Below that the gap fill to 115 is a potential target.

AVWAP from prior two earnings report with price trading in-between. VPOC area + 261.8 fib level at 145 found buyers. 169 and above AVWAP from ATH is key resistance. This would also be above AVWAP from last earning

Higher degree of technicals in play here while reviewing.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

This is a trade I took on mobile with limited tools and attention. I decided to do quick scan on mobile while managing another trade. This was also shortly after the FOMC meeting which was a larger economic event in play. Fought for price before settling on a price that made sense and well within my trade/risk parameters. Trade is not forced and is considered as a feeler sized position but on a woking A/B grade playbook trade.

Trade executed as planned. Buyers starting to show up around 140 and possible support showing. Keeping in mind that these mobile remote trades need to be limited as better edge can be derived from better tools and the trade desk.