UPST Trade on Mar 18, 2021 15:49 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

10 year treasury yield bid up to 1.76 overnight after the FOMC meeting and press conference. It erased all the buying from the day before. Global market sell-off in play as energy was selling off as well. Moving into quadruple witching Friday and closing out Q1 option contracts.

Fundamental Analysis

UPST is a cloud based AI lending platform. This is within a strong financial sector of the market as well. They reported a beat on EPS 0.07 vs. 0.02 and beat on Revenue 86.7M vs. 73.5M. They also agreed to acquire Prodigy Software, that provides cloud based automotive retail software. Guidance was also raised notably. The recent IPO is making a great entry in an industry and showing innovation within the financial lending space.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 13.39
AVOL 1.80M
ATR 12.94
Short Float 3.94%
Shs Float 56.98M
Inst Own 59.80%
Market Cap 8.52B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 38.522
IV 168.50%
IVP n/a
P/C 1.245
VWAP 106.344

Mixed order flow data and not able to use besides confirming RVOL with SI.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 360
VOL 1366
Delta .00
Theta -.05
Vega .00
Gamma .00
Prob T 1.87%
Prob ITM 0.97%
MMM +/- 17.207
IV Series 264.63%

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

IV increase with elevated RVOL. Notable volume done on ASK and closing into ATH's in a strong market down day.

Elevated RVOL and into ATH's. Above AVWAP from previous ATH. 80 area of value of interest.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Grade A execution here along with 4 other working trades simultaneously this week. I need to allow more time to review more fundamentals before placing trades like this. The RVOL was the notable giveaway + earnings catalyst + market down day. The move was extremely strong and I should have sized up larger in the trade.

I know I had other trades on this week and it was a range expanding week in regards to my process with the different and multiple ideas/executions ; but I need to recognize the bigger opportunities and capitalize on them.

The flip side is if the markets did sell off more extremely. The long positions could have drawn down more. This was the only long position for this week and the rest were shorts.

Overall the week was well done and opened a different perspective in my trading career thus far. Need to continue to build onto the playbook, execute playbooks better, and find additional areas to expand. I felt like I hit all 3 of those this week. May need to take a step back and assess continued risk and only press when it all lines up. Do not get complacent as that is what leads to the unexpected and avoidable drawdowns as previously experienced last month.