CAN Trade on Apr 12, 2021 15:41 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opening flat into the week but holding high's from Friday. Beginning of earnings season and banks reporting on Wednesday with notable economic reports on Thursday. Lighter volume today like last week with markets anticipating catalyst later this week.

Fundamental Analysis

CAN business operates in China and within the IT sector. They provide systems and products for cryptocurrency mining. They had reported Q4 GAAP EPS of -0.47 and a Revenue of 5.8M (-91.3% YOY). Supply chain disruptions was a lead factor. There are other companies with similar business models that are taking some of the market share business, ie. NVDA, RIOT, and MARA. It is increasingly competitive for theses companies in an in play cryptocurrency sector as demand for resources are high.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 3.31
AVOL 18.16M
ATR 4.01
Short Float 5.19%
Shs Float 109.03M
Inst Own 11.60%
Market Cap 2.09B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 6.975
IV 185.24%
IVP 66%
P/C 0.59
VWAP 14.415

Heavier call side activity. Noting put orders on the ASK confirming direction. Notable options activity both sides at 12.5 and possibly a price level of higher interest in the near term. I did review the tape (not shown) as I noticed my orders were hitting and dropping the BID's when viewing the stock tape. I've seen this happened before and I tested it again as price was attempting to breakdown 13 again. There was some effect on my options position into the tape and or perhaps sellers on the same level. 13 did end up regaining control from the buyers but this will be a key price level to test on day 2.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 1770
VOL 1006
Delta .03
Theta -.03
Vega .00
Gamma .01
Prob T 2.01%
Prob ITM 0.93%
MMM +/- 3.108
IV Series 256.21%

Adequate options positioning and within risk parameters. Moderate/aggressive in this approach as this is a single leg but size was higher due to the price of the stock. After reviewing I though about adding more size and how I would be able to do so while managing risk. It is simply scaling up with allocation relative to the account size and risk. Meaning that it wouldn't be managed differently and just scaled up accordingly. The liquidity is there which is also of much significance.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

15 HTF support breakdown with notable RVOL. Most volume done on BID. Keeping in mind the strong gap fill but momentum to the downside. IV did increase which is not normal after earnings but this is accompanying a major support break. This is a notable change in the uptrend of the stock. Burden was on the buyers and sellers are now in higher favorable control.

HTF breakdown at 15.50. Below AVWAP from last ER and ATH's. VPOC area 18-20 supply above. 13 is near-term key support to be tested on day 2.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Re-noting narrow strike selection is an area where I can improve and add R/R.

3DTE note : There was unusual pre-market activity day 2 as it was being bid up on no news. Perhaps because there is a strong bid in the cryptocurrency market as a whole so there is strong correlation. The stock was stuffed at the open to trade to 15.50 inflection that was sold into the LOD where buyers should up again. There was more bids in the after market re-approaching 15.50 and HOD. Anticipating this will break and continue with the markets tomorrow. It is also now trading above AVWAP from ER. Placing an order to exit scalp due to the strong bidding price action and unusual after hours price action. The model is indicating that the position would be fine but I'm using discretionary analysis and managing risk for unknown situations.

2DTE note : partial orders was scaled out at the open and partial EOD to even out lots in tiers for future scaling out scenarios's. At this point the model indicates an even more favorable outcome. Seeing today's strong selloff and break of Y low has me more convicted in holding the trade longer. 15.50 and 16 will be R levels back in play for the remainder of the trade. Noting more bidding up in the after hours once again.

0DTE note/review : Trade followed and adjusted as planned. Price flushed day 1 support. Keeping in mind in the future longer DTE position trades and noting risk management as additional time develops. Sizing was adequate given the current changing market regime and single legged position. Profit target obtained but keeping in mind to adjust as necessary depending on risk parameters and current development.

This was an in play earnings short within a in play sector ie. cryptocurrencies. I have to note that programs and natural buyers will be present because of that and fundamentals can be less of an impact ie. GME. I have had to exit a position recently because of this and probabilities were more leaned in my favor in this instance. But I have to keep in mind the big picture and let the market decide the trade direction. Overall grading A for plan and execution for an A+ setup.