TSLA Trade on Apr 13, 2021 15:47 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opening strong and broadly. There was JNJ news that vaccine distribution had to be halted but seems like the strong economic reports played a larger role. Large cap growth has been bid up for the last week and many companies are continuing to breaking out.

Fundamental Analysis

TSLA is reporting earnings in 2 weeks but this is from great delivery numbers reported last week. There have been a couple analyst upgrades and price target raises. This with rotation back into large cap growth sectors.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.34
AVOL 33.11M
ATR 39.57
Short Float 6.01%
Shs Float 770.38M
Inst Own 46%
Market Cap 731.72B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 2.22
IV 68.06%
IVP 10%
P/C 0.452
VWAP 740.786

Elevated options activity and 1M contracts traded on the call side at 31%/ASK. This is confirming the momentum and strength of the move. This is common to see with TSLA in the options orderbook during strong momentum moves. Notable 1700 835 call buy order at the opening bell.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 2854 28788
VOL 1195 1130
Delta -.01 .00
Theta -.16 -.04
Vega .02 .00
Gamma .00 .00
Prob T 1.96% 0.44%
Prob ITM 1.00% 0.22%
MMM +/- 38.591
IV Series 62.83%

This is similarly positioned to a position trade last week.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

HTF range breakout with most volume on ASK. IV is on the lower end set for a possible move higher. Keeping in mind VIX is lower for the overall market.

Breakout and hold above YTD AVWAP + ATH AVWAP. Held and moved off of recent VPOC area at 675.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Noting that more position size could have been added here but keeping in mind to allocate my capital accordingly anticipating the bank earnings tomorrow. Also markets have been continually BID up so using some caution in case there is a sharp unexpected reversal.

I had exited the trade due to seeing the market breadth negatively tick EOD. I was seeing other recent tech breakouts QQQ and NVDA with strong selling momentum. My risk parameters have not been hit while viewing the big picture. The model was still indicating favorable outcome. I may have had a sense on recency bias with the sell off in the crypto related areas and the COIN direct listing. I was also executing the trade remotely. I had my other short trade now working within original thesis but this long trade was starting to turn in momentum.

After reviewing I'm grading the trade thesis and setup as an A+ but the execution a C looking at my full charts on the desk. Price was above all variables and testing the first AVWAP.

In the future I need to consider scaling out vs. scalping and use my desk charting software. My trade decision level downside alert was still about 1 and 1/2 ATR's away. My only reasonable decision was noting that I would get back in the trade after seeing price action within 24 hours, knowing that I have also freed up capital to redeploy to any changing momentum moves to the downside, and anticipating a retest of the breakout possibly leading to a failed breakout. Still early signs and not usable info because there is no confirmation.

Overall just playing it conservatively and move to move. Always keeping in mind that risk management is always job number one. And being openminded and flexible is key but I need to utilize my tools and not make unnecessary adjustments on the fly. Trade could have been held and is considered breakeven.

Re-noting that QQQ's broke down Y low aggressively and VIX was now following VVIX with HH's. Both important aspects in my risk management technical analysis. Most daily volume done on BID and higher relative volume the prior day breakout.