NFLX Trade on Apr 21, 2021 14:36 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opening with renewed bidding after weekly open sell-off. Noting that risk off areas are seeing bids as well ie. gold, bonds, and yen. Choppy market and more non-directional moves with the VIX below 20. Earnings still in full swing with a peak into tech with NFLX.

Fundamental Analysis

NFLX revenues and EPS in-line with Q2 EPS guidance above consensus. From a business operating standpoint it is well positioned however the net add subscriber miss and weak revenue guidance was a more notable factor. With vaccine developments and economic re-opening the company has "pulled forward" the most net adds possible which was seen in 2020. They are seeing strong competition in their area as well.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 5.53
AVOL 4.10M
ATR 16.04
Short Float 2.06%
Shs Float 436.03M
Inst Own 82.20%
Market Cap 226.5B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 3.697
IV 30.93%
IVP 0%
P/C 0.879
VWAP 509.419

Elevated options order flow with excellent liquidity. Mixed order flow data but noting the lower IVP with the IV crush post earnings.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 2557 13212
VOL 1728 7170
Delta .01 .01
Theta -.12 -.05
Vega .02 .01
Gamma .00 .00
Prob T 2.54% 0.78%
Prob ITM 1.26% 0.39%
MMM +/- 14.246
IV Series 40.15%

Adequate positioning and size here. Good R/R and sell premium. Keeping in mind current choppy market conditions and future possible condor positions with directional weighting. Single sided directional positioning seems the best fit tho due to playbook stats and current metrics.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

Sharp IV drop + lowest in the prior 1Y. Gap down and indecision daily candle. BID and ASK breakeven with selling on BID EOD. Middle of a large HTF range. 500 key HTF inflection.

Very choppy price action with notable gaps on earnings. 500 key inflection support level held on day 1. Notable volume but below AVWAP's from last prior 3 quarterly ER's. Anticipating more sideways price action finding more buyers in the VPOC area.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Trade executed as planned. Key 500 price remains a notable price level finding buyers the past 3 sessions. Still anticipating this to hold dependent on market development. Overall grade A in an A+ trade set-up. Market has been sideways choppy so conditions is less favorable but good relative to the individual trade.

An improvement I would make emphasis on in the future is position sizing. I had used half my buying power in the A+ set-up anticipating more trades through the week. In the future I may consider higher concentration for A+ trades even earlier in the week. I can always scale out for other trades in place. Risk was well managed with the spread use.