UPS Trade on Apr 27, 2021 15:44 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets within a higher time frame range as more earnings and economic reports coming in. Busiest week of earnings as large and mega cap tech companies reporting. FOMC meeting also mid-week. Seems markets and investors in a wait and see approach however still in-play binary events arising.

Fundamental Analysis

UPS reported a revenue increase of 27% Y/Y at 22.91B vs 20.49B. EPS was at 2.77 vs 1.72. Volume was higher up at 14.3%. Revenue was lead by growth from small and medium sized business which was 22.3% of the US domestic side. Guidance was good noting that they were focusing under a better not bigger framework. They also stated that they have no plans to buy back shares.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 4.35
AVOL 3.36M
ATR 4.59
Short Float 1.26%
Shs Float 717.53M
Inst Own 68.70%
Market Cap 167.41B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 5.572
IV 24.08%
IVP 0%
P/C 0.522
VWAP 194.653

194 held on the shares tape EOD with high volume. Noting the elevated volume with heavier weighting on the call side confirming price momentum. Large put writing in the 190's in the AM session.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 1435
VOL 858
Delta -.01
Theta -.04
Vega .01
Gamma .00
Prob T 3.02%
Prob ITM 1.53%
MMM +/- 5.272
IV Series 33.60%

Adequate positioning and size here. I initially tried to get a spread filled to manage risk but wasn't able to fill. Chose the same short strike without the wing but half the original size to better manage the downside risk. Still have a solid amount of capital for the week to apply other trades within the earnings week. Noting the the 24k call volume at 200 strike.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

HTF break out on elevated volume from a multi-month consolidation range (A++ technical setup). IV crush at new 52W lows (common theme in recent earnings plays). Slightly more overall volume done at ASK.

Longer HTF 261.8 extension key level break.

HTF breakaway earnings gap AVWAP support/BID. VPOC level in similar area support/BID. 175 HTF breakout re-test gap up hold.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

3DTE note : Sized at half less than initially planned size due not being able to fill the wing for protection. Still have plenty of capital left over to apply to other potential plays for this earnings week.

Trade executed as planned and risk management handled well around the busiest week of earnings with additional key economic reports. This is also an EOM options position. Keeping note of volatility intraweek with the specific options series.

UPS developed into a trend trend trade as market and investors continued to BID it up. This is also a monthly breakout.