FB Trade on Apr 29, 2021 15:49 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

BID in markets are still present with strong earnings data. Large caps are leading the way and the market is following. FOMC rate decision left unchanged and still dovish. 10 year yield still under 1.7%. Commodities continue its super cycle longer-term uptrend. VIX also is trending lower. EOW and EOM for the initial part of the quarter.

Fundamental Analysis

FB showed increased revenues by 48% Y/Y at 26.2B. EPS beat at 3.30 vs 2.34. The company's augmented and virtual reality platform increased by 146% at 732M surprising investors. Advertising revenue has increased with users during the past year and business willing to pay more. There was a warning of growth deceleration in 2H21 in addition to new iOS changes which are also expected to affect ad targeting.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.94
AVOL 19.10M
ATR 8.22
Short Float 1.28%
Shs Float 2.38B
Inst Own 80.60%
Market Cap 922.03B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 4.321
IV 28.85%
IVP 0%
P/C 0.588
VWAP 326.69

Elevated options order flow. Heavy call side volume matching price momentum. Noting the 4,090 sized 337.5 call write at 326.33 underlying in the AM session. Significant large single leg short. Not sure if that was hedged but price ended higher in the day bust still 1 more day in the week.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 11012
VOL 5655
Delta -.01
Theta -.04
Vega .01
Gamma .00
Prob T 1.72%
Prob ITM 0.87%
MMM +/- 5.689
IV Series 31.28%

High beta mover mega cap. Notable order flow liquidity. Positioned at a discretionary priced strike and would have moved strike closed due to the model indicating a better position but weighting more on my discretionary analysis. Quantitative model factoring is secondary in the decision making. Technical and fundamentals are primary.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

IV drop into 52 wk lows (*common theme in recent earning). HTF gap up, break out, and hold. Elevated RVOL with more volume on the BID. Daily candle showing aggressive BID support after profit taking and close near HOD. Anticipating upside resolution 2nd day play into tomorrow.

Price above prior ER AVWAP's. Recent profit taking into 300 and 21 EMA. Notable buying and BID at this level.

Noting 3M VPOC areas. 308 being closest recent point.

Bigger picture monthly breakout from a longer-term consolidation. AMZN is currently undergoing this after today's AH ER's.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Trade executed as planned and risk management handled well around the busiest week of earnings with additional key economic reports. This is also an EOM options position. Keeping note of volatility intraweek with the specific options series.

FB ended the week holding the gap after day 2. 323 will be key support level into the new month. This is a breakout on the monthly from a consolidation range started last year in August. Noting the strong fundamentals and technicals on the longer-term time frame.