NQM1 Trade on May 12, 2021 15:51 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets in play with VIX over 20. Global market sell-off within the last 48 hours. NQ was showing deterioration first.

Fundamental Analysis

Inflation has been a primary theme recently effecting growth/technology stocks. 10 year yields also showing strength and continuing to be BID. Credit markets showing strength in treasury vs. high yield assets. Economic reports with CPI data coming in higher than expected showing rising costs and inflation. The markets viewed this negatively and resumed with additional aggressive profit taking. Mid May has been historically a weaker time for equity markets in general. The strength in value, cyclicals, and commodities is still present with the rotation. Notable relative strength in IWV/IWF with the 2000 tech bubble as a key reference point on the technical charts. Stretched out valuations in tech/growth also retracting also similarly. Keeping in mind the outperforming growth from last year which was pulled forward from this year.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.42
AVOL 534.773K
ATR 250.16
Short Float 14.52% (QQQ)
Shs Float 482.95M (QQQ)
Inst Own -
Market Cap 157.11B (AUM)

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 5.516
IV 31.76%
IVP 28%
P/C 1.152
VWAP 13112.182

Elevated options order flow confirming price momentum.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 281
VOL 11
Delta .04
Theta -1.80
Vega .52
Gamma .00
Prob T 3.37%
Prob ITM 1.68%
MMM +/- 303.835
IV Series 33.85%

Positioned conservatively here adding an additional bearish position for the week.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

Aggressive breakdown of yesterdays price action. Strong selling on the the BID's and close at LOD. IV is also rising.

Price below YTD AVWAP. Testing VPOC area around 12800.

Aggressive selling market breadth metrics with volatility notably increasing.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Trade executed as planned and well within conservative parameters given available active capital allocation for the intra week trades. Will consider adding spreads to bring in more credit but will keep technical risk parameters primary. A+ setup and haven't put on a Market Play Trade in a couple weeks. This was in conjunction with a short trade on an earnings play and after re-allocating portfolios with the current changing market regime.

I can see this trade's playbook combined in the future for market moves actively and longer-term portfolio adjustments. A+ execution considering the management of multiple positions shorter-term short with 2 positions and longer-term with additional portfolio's long. Starting to see the shorter-term trading merge with longer-term trading. Something to continue thinking and working towards when it comes down to trading both options + commons actively.