KSS Trade on May 20, 2021 15:47 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets rebounded opening the week with correlations in different sectors and asset classes. VIX holding above 20. Held off on some trades due to seeing SPY approaching a high of bounce into prior supply. Notable bids in for mid-week but noticing where my trading has less edge and only placing positions in strict parameters due to the volatility and change of markets regime.

Fundamental Analysis

Retail sector has been reporting towards the tail end of the earnings season with KSS reporting. Other notable big box retailers are posting large beats and performance for the quarter included forward guidance. The latter have been seeing mixed investor involvement post earnings. Keeping in mind the theme of pricing in the re-opening trade and forward expectations. KSS did top estimates but looked to also see expectations priced in leading to profit taking. Revenues showed 3.89B vs. 3.48B up 60% Y/Y but down 5% from 2019. Overall strong bottom line results and guidance increase but keeping in mind that other competitors are posting stronger metrics. This could be seen as a priced in sell the news event and further re-allocation to other opportunities. Worth noting that KSS does have a lower P/E of 20.2x NTM and lower than most competitors. Given the higher institutional ownership the intra sector re-allocation seems in-line.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 7.36
AVOL 3.11M
ATR 3.21
Short Float 6.22%
Shs Float 155.97M
Inst Own 95.20%
Market Cap 7.90B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 5.065
IV 57.98%
IVP 7%
P/C 0.725
VWAP 53.866

Elevated options order flow with notable volume on the ASK for put. Calls showing mixed info but orders at the BID still higher. Noting the Call + Put writes at the opening session. Looked to see it resembling a pin of price action in a range.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 1194
VOL 235
Delta .03
Theta -0.04
Vega .00
Gamma .01
Prob T 4.51%
Prob ITM 2.22%
MMM +/- 2.075
IV Series 69.27%

Noting that my order volume was originally at 20% of the volume. I fought for price and got filled with a scaled down lower price but attempted to add/fill in the full position when the price moved. The latter part of the order did not fill but I still got 80% of original planned position size filled within my parameters. I also increased the delta position keeping the overall big picture of the market, price action of day 1, and theta time.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

HTF breakdown gap under support with elevated RVOL. Notable buy wick but noting BID/ASK split order flow. IV drop and anticipating price to consolidate here but may continue momentum in the change in trend.

Price below AVWAP Q420 ER but above Q320 ER. Below notable supply at VPOC with thin VPOC supply below. 40 is a HTF inflection level. Anticipating to hold here but if sellers continue control then 40 - 45 and area of support.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Trade executed and closed as planned. This was more challenging overall noting the changing market regime and with SPY approaching a critical overhead supply level. Notable economic reports also continue to be released and burden mostly on the buyers. There is definitely undergoing change in market regime but market narrative and sentiment mixed.

Continuing to be sophisticated and sharper than normal during this time. The trade was executed with conservative size. If it closed below vwap, LOD, and with market weakness then I'd push more size as in prior trades. The lot sizing was notable enough good experience with my positioning noting that I did close to 20% of the volume in that strike with elevated options order flow.

Fighting for price on the tape and chain was beneficial as I will be experimenting with scaling and hitting at different prices close to the BID and towards the offer if time and the order flow makes sense. (ie. if there is some spread and the MM's/pption model pricing moves with it)

I also have been updating the schedule with my physical training. Keeping in mind my time allocation and priorities. It seems to be helping overall and aligning to better performance. Sleep has been improving and I'm now monitoring additional physiological metrics with a great auto regulation tool designed for athletes (Whoop strap similar to the Oura ring but with expansive metrics). This will be playing a notable role in my development as I have my physical health back more in-tune and flow with my trading/investment efforts.