DLTR Trade on May 27, 2021 15:44 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Last trading week of the month with Memorial weekend holiday at tail end. Earnings reports wrapping up but still opportunity being seen along with common developing themes in place.

Fundamental Analysis

Dollar Tree reported better than consensus expectations with EPS up 54% Y/Y at 1.60 vs 1.40. The core business model is expanding but with notable freight costs. The FY EPS guidance was lowered to 5.80-6.05 below consensus of 6.20 due to the latter. This is a common theme with other retailers with the developments in the economic re-openings. Supply constraints and inflation is noted with current economic reports. Ships aren't the only shortage as there is also a US labor shortage in trucking.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 4.83
AVOL 1.67M
ATR 2.44
Short Float 1.98%
Shs Float 231.02M
Inst Own 92.50%
Market Cap 23.38B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 6.644
IV 25.92%
IVP 28%
P/C 0.843
VWAP 100.765

Elevated option order flow. Notable Call BID + Put ASK volume correlating with price momentum. Notable block call write orders at the open.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Options Positioning

OI 370
VOL 234
Delta .01
Theta -.01
Vega .00
Gamma .01
Prob T 2.38%
Prob ITM 1.18%
MMM +/- 1.833
IV Series 33.30%

Conservative position size w/ moderate strike selection. Continue to split my orders against the market makers and or option program models. Picking up a few cue's seeing the spreads change as I adjust orders. Keeping this in note for future development of orders. Keeping in mind sweeps and sprays of certain orders being talked about by other advanced traders.

Options data stats/notes day prior to catalyst (n/a)

Technical Analysis

Gap down under support with elevated volume on the BID. IV sharp decrease with premiums. A sustained down trend may be in play based on current technicals.

Price trading below noted AVWAP's from ER's. VPOC level of 108 did not hold and fell into next VPOC. Next notable VPOC support area is around 95. 100 will be a key resistance HTF level to test on a BID. Sellers in strong control based on the technicals but a great value BID in the near term with high institutional holdings.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

(A+) trade setup with good execution. This is scalp trade so higher size is warranted in thse situations. Noting in next trade to recognize institutional holding and momentum of price action. I can get larger in these type of trades. I would have probably doubled my size here but I wanted to keep my margin allocations in place. I had a bigger global macro trade in GC_F form earlier in the week. Keeping in mind to keep pushing where my edges exist and execute aggressively specific parameters based on the conditions and set-up.

Monthly Trade Review

I drew down with the SMB/InvestiQuant Adaptive IQ Model significantly at the beginning of the month and decided to remove the trade out of my playbook until future notice. As recently part of the Options Tribe trading team and under group mentoring with Seth who is head of the SMB Options trading desk, discussed this with me and we agreed to move forward with my decision. I still have not met with Seth to discuss my current discretionary trading development and goals going forward but will into the end of this coming month.

I did not expect myself to move into profitability this month but the determination and focus on the trading process has proved great edge/strength. I continued to execute my discretionary trades minus the systematic ones now out of the equation and outperformed the hybrid model since its discontinuation in the beginning of the month. It increased my awareness and aggressiveness in my trades as it pushed me out of my comfortable parameter zone to press more into trades that I have edge in.

This looks to be a notable pivot based on the overview metrics and equity curve failed breakdown regain of M/M profitability. Keeping in mind the saying in technical analysis terms "From failed moves, come fast moves". Will enter the new month with a renewed process playbook to continue building from the fundamentals and edges in development.

1Y Overall Performance since trading Options 06/2020

YTD Overall Performance (relative strength trading process + equity curve continuity)

YTD Discretionary Performance (noting rate of change on equity curve)

YTD Systematic Adaptive IQ Model Performance (discontinued playbook)