COUP Trade on Jun 8, 2021 15:55 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Equity markets continuing in "floatation" trend. Rotational trends in place with tech large cap + small cap growth seeing buying with value XLF, XLI, XLB seeing some selling. Worth noting that XLE and CL_F still seeing bids. CPI reports came in within transitory inflation guidance by the FED. Fixed income markets seem to be buying into this as well with 10Y yields trading at 3 month lows and the bond yields seeing buyers step up increasing after stabilizing for 1H21. Gold is consolidating in the mid-term. ECB with continuing dovish monetary support. Keeping in mind the US policies into 2H21 and the next FOMC meeting. Interest rates still low and future pricing in an increase in the near + mid-term timeframes is also low.

Fundamental Analysis

Coupa Software reported back to back quarters of profits with now notably revenue upside guidance for Q1 and Q2 above consensus. The company noted that the economy is improving and heading toward post-pandemic normalcy. With recent acquisition and business integration of LLamasoft's AI-powered supply chain and software they expect revenue to be lower for FY22 and most of FY23. This is relative to the muted guidance the market interpreted even with the upside guidance. The company has a long runway for growth with 70-80% of the business to transition into at IT platform from traditional methods.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 5.06
AVOL 1.30M
ATR 10.35
Short Float 11.02%
Shs Float 68.23M
Inst Own *95%+ (*alternate data - 74.505M shares from Q121 12F filings)
Market Cap 15.50B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 3.736
IV 47.71%
IVP 14%
P/C 0.998
VWAP 219.547

Even call/put ratio but with 24% puts done at the ASK possibly implying more downside momentum/hedging. Elevated options order flow. Notable put buying in the AM session.

Additional tape reading after hours. Noting the put call activity in the AM but put selling mid-session to close. Possible change in sentiment + price action activity. Will be implementing this to include anything I may have missed during the session and or filter it during. Also researching use of order flow data to monitor unusual + dark pool transactions as possible additional indications.

Options Positioning

OI 1425
VOL 73
Delta .01
Theta -.06
Vega .01
Gamma .00
Prob T 1.32%
Prob ITM 0.65%
MMM +/- 9.86
IV Series 56.13%

Positioned within current parameters of the trade and finding liquidity areas relevant to significant price levels.

Technical Analysis

Elevated RVOL with sellers in control and volume done on the BID. IV crush. HTF 240 level strong rejection and gap down.

Price trading below 240 HTF inflection level earnings VWAP's + 52W high VWAP + at lower end of VPOC area. Strong sell volume into LOD.

Notable buying at open and mid day session but stuffed at 224 into EOD and below intraday VWAP. Important day 1 indication because the volume done buying was aggressive. This possibly lead to the bottoming and run-up into the end of the week. Lot's of value buying. Seller still in place day one.

Next 3 days with buyers in control. EOW notable buying volume. 224 was a key level that had key supply and sellers this is with a current changing market rotational regime now favoring this sector. Keeping in mind for trades for the next few weeks.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Overall (A+) trade set-up however within a changing market regime. Need to keep in mind the current flows and fundamentals of the trade. Execution graded as a (B) because I'm now seeing pockets of opportunity and adjustments after.

There is a higher future element of risk here seeing that the trade did not develop as I had initially planned however risk was managed within my parameters. Will be keeping in mind top priority this weeks market rotational trends. Keeping an open mind and now anticipating this company to make a strong HTF trend reversal seeing the current price action's but dependent on sellers and supply levels at 250. Alternate view is the soft-gap fill and continuation of day one sellers with a weak growth/tech/software market regime.