NVDA Trade on Jun 17, 2021 15:46 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

FOMC week with less conviction in market movement to start. Low to medium impact economic reports for the week but monetary meeting still of higher impact. Noted value factor areas seeing outflows to start the month and growth seeing inflows which was a continued theme for the whole week. Slow corporate calendar for the week as the markets move into the next earnings in a couple weeks. Limited opportunity with more emphasis towards the end of the week after the FOMC meeting.

Fundamental Analysis

Nvidia had reported positive earnings on May 25th, announced a 4/1 stock split on May 21st, and has been receiving analysts upgrades and coverages. There also has been a shift in inflows back to growth sector areas beginning of the month. The semi-conductor industry has been seeing recent strength. Although this is on the back of spot copper seeing weakness the chip industry is finding buyers over value factor areas. In higher inflation periods tech does underperform due to decreasing margins from lower pricing power. The rising inflation theme has been noted by the FED as transitory but with more current acknowledgement. The market currently seems to be digesting it that way seeing the rotations in the market.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.33
AVOL 8.57
ATR 21.05
Short Float 1.05%
Shs Float 597.89
Inst Own 67.70%
Market Cap 454.50B

Options Statistics + Order Flow + Dark Pool Tape Reading

SI 3.257
IV 36.07%
IVP 12%
P/C 0.434
VWAP 741.98

Elevated option order flow with concentration on calls ASK confirming momentum. Notable ITM calls bought throughout the trading day.

Adding institutional market order flow data to analyze momentum and conviction on this side of the order book. This is including dark pool orders. Notable activity on both ends confirming and adding more detail on the TOS order flow model.

Significant blocks and sweeps throughout the trading day.

Dark & lit pool prints at the open (139M) and at the close + AH (another 141M + 129M). Noting the dark pool level at 746 with 424K shares at 317M NV.

Reading into the orders here on day 1 of the move with notable expiry week call positions ITM.

Options Positioning

OI 1819
VOL 831
Delta -.01
Theta -.18
Vega .02
Gamma .00
Prob T 3.34%
Prob ITM 1.68%
MMM +/- 14.266
IV Series 34.68%

Positioned conservatively as this is an analyst coverage trade but with current market themes in place. Also testing the new options order flow + dark pool data. Well within parameters at the low R/R side. Selected appropriate strikes to scale from in the future.

Technical Analysis

HTF breakout with elevated RVOL at the ASK. Lower IV but turning up with the move.

AVWAP hold from 3Q20 highs. 710 was also a key 161.8 level. Breakout on multiple timeframes.

MTF consolidation breakout. Key 710 bid support also off of 700 VPOC area.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

(B/A) setup with (A+) execution. I was using new quantitative data from the institutional end and sized accordingly. Also was testing my RBC risk management model on my account. Both provided me with great data going forward. I learned that there is more insight to stack from within the institutional order flow and dark/lit pools. This will sharpen my edge within my quantitative analysis which I will continue to pair with fundamentals and technicals. My account RBC model is working as it should as I was positioned about half for an A+ scalp setup.

Weekly Trading Review

Overall one good trading week while waiting for the market to move after the FOMC meeting. I was not expecting any trades with the current week's setup but markets can move and present opportunities quickly. If they fit within my playbook then I have to execute them. Managing risk and positioning accordingly and keeping an open mind to broaden and grow my trading skills. Looking forward to adding the additional edge within my quantitative analysis while positioning within my risk management parameters. More work will be needed here but will stack more conviction in trades.