NKE Trade on Jun 25, 2021 13:53 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets with continued bid support from buyers although with decreased internal breadth readings and notably low bearish sentiment data. Rotational trends in place with volatility metrics decreasing implying less hedging and price action movement. There are still individual components still providing opportunities but limited with less high impact economic events + low corporate news flow. More risk-off, less aggressive, selective for active trading. For portfolio management it is choppy market overall with rotational buyers in control. Cash, bonds, and decreased position sized active management is prudent into 3Q21 and 2H21.

Fundamental Analysis

Nike reported notable expectation beats in EPS and Revenue's hitting a record 12B representing a 95% Y/Y increase. More notable it was experiencing revenue recapture + growth amid last quarter's performance + supply disruption concerns. This will be a tailwind going forward in the companies new fiscal year. The company also received strong analyst coverage updates and ratings.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 6.82
AVOL 6.73M
ATR 3.52
Short Float 0.95%
Shs Float 1.27B
Inst Own 83.80%
Market Cap 244.84B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading
(*partial data review due to off desk execution and after hours recapture)

SI 2.42
IV 27.82%
IVP 17%
P/C 0.545
VWAP 152.832

Elevated option order flow with high call concentration.

Noting the 0DTE call orders to confirm momentum. There are also notable larger orders at further out expiration dates including floor trades.

Notable dark & lit pool prints and levels. 154.35 is the level that stands out. This is at ATH's and the largest order of 44.62M after hours. This may be implying a higher move for day 2 and into next week.

Options Positioning

OI 108
VOL 2212
Delta *
Theta *
Vega *
Gamma *
Prob T *
Prob ITM *
MMM +/- 0.561
IV Series 16.17%

Positioned well within parameters but still conservative due to limited data and remote execution. Inline to prior ER trade playbook.

Earnings Statistics

Adding this new section of my analysis to stack the variable checklist in a stock's historical movement characteristics. IV and the ATM straddle should show consistency due to the dynamics of the options order flow around earnings. EPS data and trend is useful to a certain degree because it does not solely indicate price direction but it can be here as a gauge of prior quarters and unexpected changes forward. This will be inline with other key factors including revenue and guidance which is not shown here but more in the FA. What is most important here is the price action. I will be able to see a snapshot of the historical stock movement to add a variable into positioning.

Seen here and to add to this playbook review, NKE moves generally within an average 1 to 2 ATR move post earnings. Based on this my position is looked as very very conservative. This is within my working playbook parameters. A spread or single leg position at 145 seems to have a fair edge in this specific trade. Will keep this in mind and compare against other metrics and trade checklist criteria in future trades.

Technical Analysis

Notable elevated RVOL at the ASK with IV decreasing implying a more sustained support and new trend higher. Notable gap up and HTF breakout.

Strong after hours + pre market BID support. Buyers found at the open and at vwap mid session. This may imply a continued trend in the near term.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

(A+) trade and (C/B) execution. 0DTE trades are in my playbook but there are times when this can provide great opportunity in the trading business. Prior to placing the trade I had already done the background research in the after hours. I used the pre-market and opening session data to initiate my trade. I realize that I can add more risk in this specific type of set-up however I need all my tools in place to press more aggressively.

The trade is limited and can be improved but I will have to decide in future trades to allow this. On a personal note I like to keep Friday's winding down into the weekend but there are days that I need to be 2 hands on the wheel vs. on semi auto-pilot for these rare opportunities.

Weekly Trading Review

Overall another good week of trading and approaching a close out of the month improving from last month and collectively as a quarter progression. 1H21 can also be considered as a major progression from 2H20. Learned there are trades where my bread & butter earnings playbooks are limited but can show up at any ER and day as showed in the NKE trade.

To build more progression I need to show more commitment to the screen time. I have been recently considering scaling back into intraday common trading with the new strategies and concepts learned in the last year strictly trading options but using intraday + intraweek data and playbook parameters.

More to add and think about into the monthly + Q2 + 1H21 review..