WBA Trade on Jul 1, 2021 15:45 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Closing week of 1H21 + 21Q2 + June month + into weekend 4th of July Holiday. Index rebalances have taken place in the prior week along with quadruple witching. Q2 earnings season in preparation in the weeks ahead. Indexes at high's but breadth metrics not confirming. Technology and large cap seeing doing most of the lifting and grind up. Volatility is notably decreasing but may pick-up going forward with portfolio management and the new earnings season. Earnings growth and guidance will be a theme with the current FED policies for the market as a whole. More to digest into the 2H21 but still binary events taking place along with a few earnings still reporting.

Fundamental Analysis

Walgreens Boots Alliance reported an adjusted EPS increase of 81% Y/Y to 1.51. This was the largest beat in 5 years with 3rd consecutive double digit beat showing a strong trend in the right direction. Revenues wer slightly above estimates. With the new CEO and undergoing changes rolling out primary care offices under VillageMD and pharmacy automation projects, this is showing more investment in the near-term for the longer outlook. This will be affecting EPS in the shorter-term. It is also worth noting that the company did benefit from the increased comps on the retail end from distributing vaccines and the economic reopening. However this can be seen as a headwind as this was only a temporary aspect.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 4.76
AVOL 4.99
ATR 1.38
Short Float 1.79%
Shs Float 715.24M
Inst Own 58.60%
Market Cap 42.06B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 7.71
IV 31.44%
IVP 43%
P/C 0.386
VWAP 49.343

Notable elevated option order flow. Statistics to read the momentum was mixed. There was more weight traded on the call side. Normally I'd like to see more Put's on the ASK. After reviewing, what did stand out was the lesser amount of Put's on the BID because this would imply less bullishness and sellers less willing to take shares on the declining price of the stock.

Noting the large put orders at the open and close. First put order was a sweep at the open and largest put order was a block also in the AM session. The last put block order was at the EOD. There was a call order AA but did not confirm in the overall thesis.

Print at 49.52 within overall level at 49. This was sold into day 2.

Options Positioning

OI 2213
VOL 1103
Delta .02
Theta -.02
Vega .00
Gamma .02
Prob T 4.09%
Prob ITM 2.02%
MMM +/- 1.065
IV Series 39.60%

Positioned within parameters. Conservatively sized due to current market regime + (A) setup + testing earnings statistics & new tape data.

Earnings Statistics

Noticed the IV drop and gaps. Has trended up in prior 3 EPS quarter beats. This quarter beat was different. The stock also remains within relative range day 2.

Technical Analysis

Elevated RVOL and slight decrease in IV. Sharp HTF breakdown and close LOD. 52 bid supply level overhead.

Below notable AVWAP's and at 48 VPOC support area. Below 52-55 VPOC supply area.

Bid bounce after the opening flush and pre-market stuff. Sellers back in control mid-day and into EOD close day 1. Mis-print in the AH and sellers showing up at the open day 2 under 2 day VWAP.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

Overall (A) setup with (A+) execution. The extra data edge is confirming and helping in the trades thus far. Need to keep in mind not to find just additional data for confirmation bias but to have it as an additional perspective of the trade to add edge, conviction, consistency, and possibly be able to put on more size.

This trade can call for more size but I have scaled back my trade as mentioned recently. The time to press will show up again and I have to remain selective as the market prevails. The flip side is that I should have been able to size up more in this trade. If there was a gap down under the 52 support vs flush selling at the open I might have been more apt to add size here. But still keeping in mind the whole picture context of my own personal development along with the markets.

Weekly + Monthly + Quarterly + Semi Annual Trading Review

Lighter volume and trading in this week with current market regime. Was anticipating low trading opportunities but was prepared. Continuing to scale back but keeping in mind my business cash flow.

Doing more data research on the quantitative order flow end this month and finding a great source of edge here. It is adding an additional perspective on my tape reading skills. This will be a key aspect in my trading going forward and something to build more onto in addition to other tools.

For a Q2 performance stand point I'm doing good and growing. The upcoming SMB mentorship meeting next week will be an important pivot point in my business and trading career. This will be another successful earnings season and much more to improve on. Possibly intra day common shares + options trades in the nearer future but will have to considerably size/scale down to test and refine.

1H21 was another major building block in my trading career thus far. Two full time earnings seasons back to back coming off of a recession year in the markets is notable. Steve has mentioned that trading in the market the past 2 years has provided a lot of experience to traders and I can agree with that. I started trading Q3 2017 and the last 2 years have been packed with different opportunities and learning experiences.

P&L vs. Duration

The drawdown anomaly (largest red bubble) is from the systematic Adaptive IQ Model I had discontinued to focus on my discretionary trading. More importantly the trades at 1DTE. This represents where most of my trades occurred and an area I can expand on. This is also where the losses but it represents when I have cut those trades. Usually a trade losing is cut in 1-0DTE which is part of my risk management. Noting there are trades throughout the week starting at 4DTE as well. This is also in sync with my current full time occupation outside of trading.

Day of the Week

This is is matching my trade P&L cluster at 1DTE from above. Also showing a low distribution at 0DTE. Possibly two areas to look into to build and improve on.

Profit Factor + Win % + Volume

Significant strength from Breakdown, Scalp Option, & Gap Down Under Support Trades. Other notable trades that can be combined are Discretionary, Momentum, Directional, HTF Technical, & Earnings Trades with the majority of the higher volume done form here as well. Can press more volume into the former which are showing the the higher strengths. I just started tagging the DTE on the trades but this should confirm duration + day of the week.

Trade Types

This is giving more view of my trades and reinforcing the section above where my strengths are. There are opportunities in-between and if the top trades don't set-up then I can work down the list as well. Surprised breakout trades have not shown notable strength. Possibly a current market theme in play within earnings but relative to the setup.

Instrument Volume

Notable higher volume in-play stocks + elevated RVOL including volume increasing the day prior. RVOL above 5 is notable here and somewhere I can press more into trades.

Instrument ATR

ATR 3+ is notable as this allows more movement in trades. Profitable when the stock moves more than 2+ ATR. Need to keep in mind ATR movement but generally the further the movement the better positioning I can get with my specific trades.

Instrument Trade Price + Volume

I have been scaling up my lots based on improving performance and capital but scaling back if appropriate to manage risk. Since most of my trades are weeklies and scalps the price is on the lower end. Possible seeing an opportunity with scaling orders and possibly looking into bi-weekly's for higher price but dependent on trade set-up and risk.

Instrument Movement

Moves 2+/- to 10+/- % and 2+/- % gaps and outside range is key with my trades. Very few in-between and not notable.

Relation to Market

My trading starts with market big picture and here it shows my trades are when SPY is moving 1+/- % including gaps and more notably outside the daily range. This is fundamental key to active trading as the Market is the main flow current. Goes in line with the saying "A rising or falling tide lifts or sinks all boats".

Month of the Year

Trading seems to be tapering comparing Q2 to Q1. Could be the volatility an selectivity and current market regimes. Personal schedule and screen time certainly is playing a role. May was the most active with the largest drawdown but more active trading and actually still profitable. Definitely pivotal as this sort of forced me to pay more attention to my A+ trades and press more. March I was more active and on the desk more which is shown by the distribution. Makes sense with the work put in correlation to performance.

Win/Loss P&L Metrics

The expectation is out of range due to the drawdown caused by the model in Q2 which has been taken out of the playbook. Gain equity curve is showing steady positive growth.

Win/Loss P&L + 1H21 Overview

Higher win rate with steady gains + consistent cashflow has been my main goal. The drawdown is also highlighted here but now behind but curve flattening with my recent scaling back on trading. There are areas listed prior to focus on in the near future but more importantly is to continue pressing to my areas of strengths and allowing trading time to catch those pockets where R/R, setup, and opportunity presents itself. Looking forward to the next half of the year and learning more within the trading process and business.

Trading System Metrics

SQN in which R mode was ran noted that system quality was in a superb range according to the calculations by Van K Tharp and Tradervue. The true R in my trades are discretionary as losses can be larger but in relation to delta. My trades are with delta's .05 or less currently which is why my win rates are higher. So a higher win rate with lower perceived risk might have been a role in the calculation. Taking this with a grain of salt though because of the discretionary input.

Probability of random change is 0.5% which is inline with high probability trade selection. Kelly % is indicating that I can use up to ~60% per trade allocation. I generally allocate capital based on weekly planned capital along with the type of trades that setup. Generally more and up to 80%+ on 1-0DTE A++ setups which is within the trade day range where my strength is. K-Ratio is reflecting the positive consistency of the system and above the 2.0 "good" range. Profit factor is 3.07 but as seen in Trade Types this can be augmented in trades with stronger edges. Average hold time of wining trades is 1 day reflecting the DTE trades and scalp trades.