FB Trade on Jun 28, 2021 15:55 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Closing week of 1H21 + 21Q2 + June month + into weekend 4th of July Holiday. Index rebalances have taken place in the prior week along with quadruple witching. Q2 earnings season in preparation in the weeks ahead. Indexes at high's but breadth metrics not confirming. Technology and large cap seeing doing most of the lifting and grind up. Volatility is notably decreasing but may pick-up going forward with portfolio management and the new earnings season. Earnings growth and guidance will be a theme with the current FED policies for the market as a whole. More to digest into the 2H21 but still binary events taking place along with a few earnings still reporting.

Fundamental Analysis

Facebook has been part of the strong bid and support of the market recently. The federal court dismissed the FTC's antitrust lawsuit against the company. Supply of share ownership may have been diverted by investors because of this aspect but now with it cleared that risk has been take out and allows the company more focus on the main business models. This is also the first time FB has reached a market cap of 1T joining AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and GOOGL.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.64
AVOL 17.66M
ATR 6.87
Short Float 1.11%
Shs Float 2.38B
Inst Own 80.30%
Market Cap 1013.75B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading

SI 2.543
IV 32.67%
IVP 29%
P/C 0.302
VWAP 350.716

Elevated order flow with weight on the Call side. Confirmed momentum with the large call buy side orders.

Large sweep orders at the open but more notable the orders at 11:50AM+ after the news hit the tape. This is showing notable institutional involvement also on the options call buy side giving insight on the "buyers in control" options tape above.

Notable dark & lit pool prints with level at 355.64 with 728.91M notional value. This is showing institutional shares movement in an "in-play" stock.

Options Positioning

OI 1411 600
VOL 872 376
Delta -.02 .00
Theta -.06 -.02
Vega .02 .01
Gamma .00 .00
Prob T 3.65% 1.12%
Prob ITM 1.84% 0.56%
MMM +/- 11.465
IV Series 36.03%

Spread used here with the (B+) setup and to manage risk on the 4DTE position. Within parameters and on the delta conservative/moderate end.

Earnings Statistics (n/a)

Technical Analysis

Not much of elevated RVOL but in high beta stocks it can be lower as seen in market play trades. More important is the large expansion of price + at ATH's + close at HOD. IV is slightly trending but overall market IV is low.

Notable volume on breaking news on MHTF.

Also seen on LTF. Notable volume compared to initial start of the days session.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

(B+) setup trade and in my playbook. Execution (A) as this is a weekly position trade with full spread to manage risk. Noting the intra week dark pool levels for future trades. I think this can be seen and used like VPOC and or options OI interest pinning.

I did size my trade to 1/3 of my capital for the week and think this was adequate knowing the binary event but in context of underlying market bid strength. Also decreasing my risk recently with the current type of market which also played a role in my positioning. Will still be using current position risk management parameters on these specific trades but will be testing/updating it for A+ trades.