AMZN Trade on Jul 7, 2021 09:41 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Markets opening on a shortened week flat to up. No critical economic or notable corporate events for the week. Value to growth rotations still in play. Lower probability of catalysts for the week. Next week is the official start of earnings season with the large banks which should have markets moving. Towards the end of this week Japan declared a state of emergency which caused some knee jerking reaction on the markets. Yields were also being sold below 1.4%. SPY and QQQ ended closing at ATH's for the week.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Amazon is officially under the new CEO Andy Jassy as Jeff Bezos has transitioned. What also was notable was the announcement of the Pentagon rebooting the 10B JEDI cloud contract seeking proposals for Joint Warfighter Cloud Capability Contract. This new contract is currently for review for MSFT and AMZN but it was mentioned that it will remain open to alternative cloud service providers.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 1.94
AVOL 3.46M
ATR 60.46
Short Float 1.11%
Shs Float 435.38M
Inst Own 59.20%
Market Cap 1.8T

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels

SI 2.342
IV 33.57%
IVP 37%
P/C 0.382
VWAP 3633.749

Elevated options order flow with heavy weight on the call side. Notable for a high beta market stock. Notable large 467 size 5200 call order sold at the BID. Multiple (25 ATR) deviations above the market.

Notable institutional order flow. Notable blocks + sweeps with high premiums ITM + ATM. Noting the put orders at the open but this prior to the news hitting the wires. Have to keep in mind put orders on the other end of the side of the book as well for the future on directional momentum.

Example of golden sweep put order below the BID. Noting it as either a drop of a hedge or order to add 120K shares at 3700. This was over 1M and larger than the current OI. Very significant order that correlated with Friday's price action.

Dark pool level at 3,383.87 with day 1 from the beginning of the month with 1.33B shares exchanged.

Level from day 1 which correlated with VPOC, price action, and the golden sweep order.

Options Positioning

OI 1420
VOL (*)
Delta -.02
Theta -1.71
Vega .19
Gamma .00
Prob T 5.69%
Prob ITM 2.88%
MMM +/- 107.44
IV Series 38.68%

*This was data after the close and updated. The order was executed at the next days open with these parameters. Volume was added into the OI but a notable area of liquidity and order on day 1.

In position data still reflecting elevated order flow and liquidity.

Technical Analysis

HTF M/W/D breakout on elevated RVOL on the ASK. ATH's with no supply resistance areas. IV also low to mid range.

Longer-term range consolidation break. Above 20Q3 + 21Q1 ER AVWAP. Above all supply VPOC levels.

Lower timeframe price action found buyers supporting higher levels next day. Overnight global market sell off gap priced lower but was aggressively bought up at key levels. 3661 was a DP level day 2. AVWAP from day 1 was a key technical indicator as day 3 shows. 3700 level which dipped through VWAP but not day 1 AVWAP was aggressively bought. That DP level also correlated with LTF VPOC.

Trade/Risk Management & Review

(A++) setup with (A) execution. Trade was set-up within the past (very conservative) risk parameters. Trade was scalped out on the gap down but put back on after buyers regained controlled. This was a risk management update and only cost was the commissions as the original profit target was maintained. This is going to be key for me going forward because I will be adjusting parameters moving forward positioning closer to the market as my experience and skills grow and improve.

Weekly Review

Overall the shortened week provided a great opportunity for this trade and also kept the market alert towards the end. A new strategy I will be implementing is decreasing and eliminating single leg options because it is uncontrolled higher risk especially moving closer to the market. The firm does not accept this type of trading for any overnight positions. This can only be used intraday. There are more favorably R/R opportunities with spreads on intra week position trades to develop.

One risk management system I will implement is rolling my position away from the market if my short strikes are within 3 ATR's and or near identified support/resistance levels relative to the market movement. This will allow adjustable + higher delta's and theta to increase profits. Additional I will use the original premium collected to be a starting point risk in the trade instead of a pre-set conservative hard stop number. I think this will allow me to bump my risk systematically while increasing my trading profits. Sizing will be in accordance with planned intra week capital, playbook trade, + risk management. Profit goal is to make 30+% over the next 6 months. Looking forward to earnings season start next week.