DIS Trade on Jul 13, 2021 09:30 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

First week of 2Q earnings with banks reporting. Some broad market selling price action seen in the ticks and across risk-on assets and some bids in risk-off assets. Corporate news and sentiment pivot set-ups for binary catalyst still providing pockets of opportunity. Big picture, markets have seen to be pricing in peak reflation + inflation data as more economic reports roll out and now further pricing in as monetary policies are reviewed and with corporate earnings.

Fundamentals In Play Analysis

Disney had released its notable box office mover from Marvel Studios "Black Widow" which collected 60M just on Disney+. 158M was the total global box office sales. The subscription service collected 40% of that. A notable change in consumer trends but in the midst of the economic reopening. JPM reiterated the company as a top pick. In addition the company disclosed a price increase of its subscription service and has a strong trend in subscribers among its peers ie. Netflix and Amazon. They have scheduled earnings on August 12th.

Quantitative Analysis

Intraday Fundamentals

RVOL 2.52
AVOL 8.55M
ATR 3.26
Beta 1.21
Volatility 2.71% 1.94%
Short Float 1.26%
Shs Float 1.81B
Inst Own 66.40%
Market Cap 326.98B

Options Statistics + Tape Reading + Order Flow + Dark Pool Levels

SI 1.379
IV 31.58%
IVP 29%
P/C 0.226
VWAP 183.611

Moderate elevated order flow with weight on the call side.

OF 100k+ weeklies showing calls A/AA and notable size/premiums + execution types/consolidation. Noting the 768k order at the opening session and continued conviction into the close.

DP level at 173.93 from last ER and within price consolidation range. 178.18 + 184.38 are also DP volume areas.

Options Positioning

OI 15141/11115
VOL 2074/661
Delta -.04/-.01
Theta -.07/-.01
Vega .01/.00
Gamma .02/.00
Prob T 8.67%/1.29%
Prob ITM 4.36%/0.65%
MMM +/- 3.936
IV Series 28.25%

Positioning is closer but keeping in mind the specific stocks ATR, volatility, and beta. The stock also had broken out of a longer-term consolidation price range on increased volume.

Technical Analysis

HTF breakout with elevated RVOL and on the ASK. IV increasing moderately but low in HX terms. Clear breakout above 180 inflection.

Price trading above HTF VPOC, AVWAP December gap-up, ATH AVWAP, and AVWAP last ER. Clear breakout above recent consolidation range.

Risk management trade modification due to strong selling under AVWAP day 1, 181.75, and break of MTF consolidation for the week.

Trade Risk + Position + Size + Allocation Management & Review

(A+) setup with (B) execution as this was a trade entered the next opening session. Will need to allow more time on the desk to put on trades on day 1 catalyst. Still opportunity but it can come at a cost as seen with my recent AMZN trade. I had not noticed it due putting more focus on the SPCE trade but overall good. This is part of managing capital allocation which in this case which was about 15%. Low in relative terms but good in an (A+) playbook in development and updating positioning delta's.

More importantly risk was taken off at 0DTE due to seeing unusual selling EOW, under AVWAP day 1, and 181.75 support being sold into. This was within 3 ATR's of planned positioning. I closed out the short positions and kept the long position in case there was pending news as I could profit from the long put. The stock retraced about 75% of the day 1 move on this day. This is a notable reason to exit and manage risk and this is the first time I had executed a trade this way. I tried to exit as a spread but needed to manage this with more urgency. Kept the lower probability of the profit on the long put but eliminated risk on the trade while retaining most of the expected profit.

Keeping this noted to leg into positions and or have multiple positions based on price action throughout the week on top of rolling risk management executions.